The United States is planning a regime change in Iraq by force. The argument is that Saddam is a brutal tyrant and a threat to regional peace. He is accused of amassing weapons of mass destruction against the will of the international community. Therefore, he must be quickly removed. Israel also has weapons of mass destruction and is also a threat to regional peace. The continued military occupation of the West Bank and Golan Heights is a clear violation of international law, UN Security resolutions and most importantly, the overwhelmingly will of the world community. The USA will obviously never move against Israel. Then how can the USA contemplate an ouster of Saddam?

Many people, the world over, are opposing the US on this matter of Saddam’s exit. Even, Henry Kissinger, the die-hard Republican strategist says that the case against Saddam has not been made by the Bush Administration. He is surely no friend of Iraq or Saddam. America’s close Allies in Europe, with the exception of Britain, are also opposing this agenda. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is aghast at this seemingly arrogant display of a unilateralist streak in America after 9/11.

The question is what has Saddam to do with the al-Qaeda? The answer is: nothing except that the USA thinks both are its avowed enemies that must be defeated. The sooner the better.

Question arises, why the USA is behaving in this bellicose manner? Many analysts are convinced that this is simply a case of pax Americana – an imperial quest for global hegemony. The argument is that since the USA is the preponderant power of the region it is simply flexing its muscles to show its tremendous military power and capability. On the political front, the USA is targeting Saddam through a well-thought out demonization media campaign. The USA, in a classical mirror-image style, denigrated the chosen “enemy” as a fanatic and uncivilized barbarian unfit to exist in our world. Recall American loathing of communism in the Cold War period. This has happened before in 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. In February 1991 the USA led an impressive coalition of some 26 states, including Muslim countries, which finally defeated Iraq and liberated Kuwait. Saddam has been facing painful economic and military sanctions ever since. The economy has been crippled and Iraq’s military power has bee reduced significantly because of Allied air strikes over the years.

Today’s chosen enemy is Sadam (once again) and “Islamic radicals”. They are loathed and hated by the USA. A smear campaign has been orchestrated against them. After 9/11 the USA is now geared up to destroy them both. It is somewhat ironic that both were favored by the USA not that long ago. When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 and fought against the fledgling Islamic republic for nearly nine years, the USA supported Saddam against the Iranian Islamic regime. Elsewhere, in Afghanistan under Soviet Union’s occupation in 1980s, these same “Islamic fundamentalists” now considered to the very epitome of evil were considered as valiant freedom fighters. In fact, Osama himself was trained and equipped by the CIA when he was fighting the Soviet Union. Then the Soviet Union happened to be the evil empire and an enemy of civilization.

Meanwhile, a sort of open front was declared against Islamic radicalism. Repressive regimes such as Mubarak of Egypt and the one in Algeria were supported because they were actively suppressing their Islamic radicals from political power. After 9/11, the USA became very serious in its attempt to cripple the Islamic radicals in the entire region. Today the USA is supporting General Musharraf, the military dictator of Pakistan, to quash the Islamic radical networks inside the country. The situation in Pakistan is all the more dangerous because the Al-Qaeda has set up bases here. The Musharraf regime will continue to receive assistance of the USA till and when the perceived threat from the Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements has been eliminated. To date only some success has been achieved in the desired direction.

An important corollary of America’s war against terrorism is the entanglement of Islamism in the issue. All Islamists are now suspect in the eyes of the USA because the ideology of Osama and the Taliban was supposedly based on Islam. On the other hand, the most extreme of the Islamic radical groups themselves are also desirous of taking on the Americans head on. Thus, Mullah Umar, the head of the Taliban, has called for a jihad against the USA in Afghanistan. In this new crusade, he has the support of erstwhile Mujahideen commanders like Gulbadin Hekmatyar. The American media is not helping in the new conflict being resolved through any peaceful mechanisms like genuinely supporting the gradual establishment of democracy in the Islamic world. The so-called threat of Islamism to American interests in the region is a device of the USA to galvanize public support for its second phase of the war against terrorism.

On the other hand, the American threat to Islam is also widely misunderstood in the Muslim world. The politics of the war is distorting reality on both sides. There is no Huntingtonian clash of civilizations looming over the horizon. Here perceptions and reality of the Islamic world do not fit neatly. They never do. The sheer complexities must be understood for what they are. In fact, the mutual animosity and in-built conflict of Islam and the West is pure hype and widely exaggerated. The point is that there is nothing in itself that brings forth the Islamists against the USA. It is the politics of American interests in the region and the power plays of the Islamists themselves that have created the problem of mutual antagonism. This rivalry can also be resolved without any great amount of violence. Diplomatic moves may yet save the situation so to speak. Anyways the current situation in the region calls for great calmness of nerve and prudent thinking.

If the USA attacks Iraq and removes Saddam, the situation inside Afghanistan can explode. The rest of the Muslim world will also react. The Islamists will be angered and they can openly come against the Americans inside Afghanistan and elsewhere in the Muslim world. The region might regress further into chaos and further anarchy. What can be done to save any ugly outcome of the current conflict? Primarily, it depends on how the USA acts vis-à-vis Iraq. We suggest that the USA foreign policy objectives in the region be re-evaluated immediately. Perceptions matter. It seems that the USA is using the Al-Qaeda as a convenient excuse to strengthen itself further in the Southwest Asia and the Gulf region. The USA has an awesome presence in the region in terms of military and intelligence resources. Massive buildup is happening today as the USA prepares to enter the second phase of its “war on terrorism” – the removal of Saddam Hussain.

In the next few weeks the USA and Great Britain will attack Iraq and get rid of Saddam. This will happen despite the world-wide opposition to America’s designs on Iraq. Much more is involved here than just Saddam. The USA wants to dominate the entire region because of its resources and simultaneously destroy the network of radical Islamists. The USA is suspect for deeper and larger motives than just al-Qaeda and Saddam. At least, this is what a large part of the Muslim world seems to believe. The period of turmoil in the region has not ended as yet. Surely, the region will see further conflict. The USA has both the will and the desire to assert its power and defeat its rivals in further battles to come. Meanwhile, the people are concerned for their own safety and pray for peace. Will the USA pause to ponder the after effects of its planned regime change in Iraq? The world waits breathtakingly for an answer.

The writer is an Asst Professor at Area Study Center, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.