During his visit to Islamabad last week, Gen.Colin Powell, US Secretary of State, announced the decision of the Bush Administration to designate Pakistan as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) of the US. The decision would become effective 30 days after a notification in this regard has been sent by the President to the Congress...

The statute, enacted in 1996, initially designated Australia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand as MNNAs. Subsequently, Jordan (1996), Argentina (1998), Bahrain (2002), and the Philippines and Thailand (2003) have also been designated as MNNAs under this provision.

The Philippines and Thailand, both of which were members of the now defunct South-East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) and have had a long and uninterrupted (despite the closure of the Subic Bay Naval base)military co-operation relationship with the US , have been granted the benefits of both the categories. It is, therefore, likely that Pakistan would be treated on par with them and would be granted the benefits of both the categories. This would certainly have security implications for India as explained below.

The invoking of the Pressler Amendment against Pakistan in 1990 consequent upon its acquiring a military nuclear capability led to a total ban on all military supply and co-operation relationship with Pakistan. A ban was imposed on the training of Pakistani military officers in the US, exchanges of visits by military officers were severely curtailed, equipment in the pipeline (F-16 aircraft, three naval aircraft (P-3) etc) were frozen and a ban was imposed even on the supply of spare parts for equipment sold to Pakistan before 1990. Pakistan ceased to be eligible to concessional military supplies. There was also an unannounced ban on all exchanges of visits by the scientists working in the nuclear and missile establishments and advisories were issued to all US educational institutions and research laboratories to exercise care and caution against Pakistani scientists seeking admissions or invitations in respect of subjects relating to nuclear and missile development.

After the visit of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, the then Pakistani Prime Minister, to Washington DC in 1995 a limited exemption was granted by the Clinton administration under the Brown Amendment. The naval aircraft were delivered, but not the F-16 and limited quantities of spare parts were delivered for the Army and the Navy, but not for the Air Force. These exemptions were removed after Pakistan carried out its nuclear tests in 1998 and reinforced after the Army seized power on October 12, 1999.

Since 9/11, these sanctions have been eased gradually. The supply (not known whether free or on payment) of spare parts to all past equipment of the three services has been resumed. Free and concessional supply of new equipment has also resumed, but the Bush administration has been projecting them as equipment meant to strengthen Pakistan's counter-terrorism and counter-infiltration capabilities on the border with Afghanistan.

Priority has till now been to the supply of helicopters and communications equipment as well as gadgets required for the personal security of Musharraf, some of which like the jammer to jam remote control devices was procured by the US from Israel and given to Pakistan. The US has also reportedly been funding the visits of some Israeli Police officers and VIP security experts to Pakistan to advise the Musharraf Government on strengthening his security. Pakistani military and intelligence officers are again attending training courses in the US. High-level exchanges of military visits have become common.

So far as military supplies are concerned, even before the decision to grant the MNNA status was taken, all restrictions had been removed. However, the Bush Administration had till recently been reluctant to accept Pakistani requests for the sale of new F-16 aircraft, equipment meant to neutralise the advantage accruing to India from its purchase of the Phalcon radars from Israel, the latest model of US tanks and depleted uranium anti-tank ammunition.

This reluctance was partly due to concerns over the reactions in India and partly due to opposition from a large section of the House of Representatives to the supply of such equipment to Pakistan, which could be looked upon by India as detrimental to its security. It was being said that while Mr.Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, was against the supply of such equipment, Gen. Powell and more particularly Mrs. Christina Rocca, his Assistant Secretary of State in charge of South Asia, were more favourably inclined.

Would the grant of the MNNA status to Pakistan lead to the supply of the equipment coveted by Musharraf in disregard of India's concerns? Or was it meant merely to bolster the image of Musharraf in the eyes of his subordinates and public without any qualitative upgradation of the military supplies? What would happen to the post-1990 advisories relating to Pakistani nuclear and missile scientists? These are questions which it would be difficult to answer now.

It is not very difficult to see why the US has taken this decision to upgrade the status of Pakistan now. Among the reasons cited by Indian and American analysts is Pakistan's close co-operation with the US in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda dregs. More important than the military co-operation is the intelligence co-operation between the two countries, which has not been highlighted. While there are only a small number of US military officers posted in Pakistan outside the US diplomatic missions, there are estimated to be 200 plus officers of the National Security Agency, responsible for technical intelligence (TECHINT) collection, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Pentagon's Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) posted in Pakistan in the main cities as well as near the Afghan border. Well-informed observers say that there are more US intelligence officers posted in Pakistan today, with the consent of Musharraf, than even at the height of the Afghan war of the 1980s against the Soviet troops.

No other military dictator of Pakistan has given such a free rein to the US intelligence community as Musharraf has. The NSA has been allowed by Musharraf to maintain an electronic surveillance of not only the dregs of Al Qaeda, but also all Pakistani nuclear and missile scientists and serving and retired military officers who are suspected by the US of having links with Al Qaeda. It is reported that among those under electronic surveillance by the US intelligence with the approval of Musharraf are LTs.Gen. Hamid Gul, Javed Nasir and Mahmood Ahmed, former chiefs of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Gen. Mohammad Aziz, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Lt.Gen. (retd) Zaffar Usmani, former Corps Commander, Karachi, and Vice Chief of Army Staff, and Major-Gen.Zaheer-ul-Islam Abbasi, who tried to stage an abortive coup against Benazir in 1995. The US intelligence officers have also been reportedly allowed by Musharraf to maintain an electronic surveillance of the bordering areas of Iran.

For all practical purposes, Mr. Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister, who enjoys the confidence of both the US and Musharraf, has been discreetly performing the role of the facilitator of the US intelligence community in Pakistani territory.