Some expect to see the return of former Afghan king Mohammed Zahir Shah, who has lived in Italy since his ouster in a 1973 coup. Although the octogenarian is hardly an active figure these days, many Afghans hope he would bring the kind of unity seldom seen by this divided country.

Others say the best solution for Afghanistan may be a new coalition formed from among the gangs who will jostle for power to replace the Taliban. The hope is that the warlords would stop fighting each other if they ran the country together. This may sound reasonable; the trouble is, it has been tried before and failed -- in 1992 when former President Najibullah, Afghanistan's last communist ruler, was removed and replaced by a group of Mujahedin freedom fighters.

In the final analysis, a new political formula will work only if Afghanistan can break with its past of infighting. Second, Afghanistan's devastated economy has lost its ability to recover without large-scale international assistance. The lack of political stability as well as widespread fatigue by Western donors have worked against the country.

A country of such widespread destruction cannot possibly hope for a brighter future unless it receives billions of dollars in international assistance aimed at improving the quality of its infrastructure. If the U.S. unleashes its newest war on Afghanistan, it must follow up the effort with large-scale economic assistance in the post-Taliban period. Afghanistan's future stability and its ability to leave behind its reputation as a haven for terrorists depends on the extent to which its population finds new sources of income and the hope for a sustainable economic future. Afghanistan's recent legacy of flourishing militancy stems from the availability of plenty of young men with nothing else to do other than fighting and their recruitment by groups such as al-Qaeda, run by Osama bin Laden.

Finally, Afghanistan's future depends on the extent to which the U.S. can transform it into a truly neutral country so that surrounding states stop interfering in its affairs. The current crisis reminds many that this country has historically been at the center of a great game between major powers with clashing interests. In the past, Afghanistan was a convenient playing field for such rivalry, but the present-day realities that have placed it at the center of a world crisis are different. As the prospect of American retaliation grows, Afghanistan can ill afford to remain a battleground over clashing interests.

From a security perspective, salvation for a country on the brink of physical disintegration lies in convincing outside players to adopt a "hands-off" policy. Such a change in Afghanistan's profile, however, does not appear easily achievable.

Therefore, U.S.-led retaliation must be followed up with a concerted diplomatic effort to get surrounding countries to agree to a new regional security agreement to end outside interference in the country's affairs. Otherwise, a military campaign followed by the installation of a new government may serve only as a stop-gap measure rather than as the basis for Afghanistan's long-term stability.