Election 2004
* Charlotte
* State Legislatures
* Governors
* US House
* US Senate
* Senate 06
******PREDICTIONS****** Republican Victories (7) Indiana Daniels 54, Kernan 46 Missouri M. Blunt 52, McCaskill 48 Montana Brown 50, Schweitzer 50 (Brown wins) New Hampshire Benson 53, Lynch 47 North Dakota Hoeven 69, Satrom 31 Utah Huntsman 56, Matheson 44 Vermont Douglas 55, Clavelle 45 Democrat Victories (4) North Carolina Easley 54, Ballantine 46 Delaware Minner 58, Lee 42 Washington Gregoire 50.5, Rossi 49.5 West Virginia Manchin 57, Warner 43 There are 11 governors seats up in 2004. Five states (Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont) are currently governed by Republicans and six by Democrats (Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Washington, West Virginia). Three governors read the writing on the wall and chose not to run for re-election: Bob Wise of West Virginia gave it up after admitting to a marital infidelity with a state employee, while Judy Martz of Montana suffered through one trouble-plagued term, and Gary Locke of Washington was facing possible opposition for renomination. Even if Governor Bob Holden of Missouri can beat back a primary challenge from State Auditor Claire McCaskill, he'll have a tough row to hoe in the general election after four years of being browbeaten by the Republican state legislature. The other incumbent governors are at least even odds to win another term in 2004.
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Lean Democrat West Virginia Open Washington Open North Carolina Mike Easley Likely Democrat Delaware Ruth Ann Minner |
Tossup Indiana Joe Kernan Montana Open Vermont Jim Douglas Projected Control 6 Republican 5 Democrat |
Lean Republican Missouri Bob Holden Utah Open Likely Republican North Dakota John Hoeven New Hampshire Craig Benson |
North CarolinaIncumbent Mike Easley, Democrat Election margin 52-47 over ex-mayor Richard Vinroot of Charlotte Seeking re-election Yes Primary Date July 20, probably. Primary Runoff August 17, probably. Political Sites Down East Republican, Carolina Journal
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West VirginiaIncumbent Bob Wise, Democrat Seeking re-election Wise had an affair with a state government employee and will not seek a second term. Primary Date May 11th
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Rob Capehart
Joe Manchin III Lloyd Jackson
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The Democrats Lloyd Jackson is a respected state senator, so the Democrats won't nominate him. Joe Manchin III is the safe, bland, establishment choice for the nomination, which means he'll almost certainly get it. Can an establishment Democrat stay completely unconnected to the shenanigans of Bob Wise? Has Wise hurt the party label for everyone? There's not too much evidence to say he has, but stay tuned. The Republicans Former Secretary of Tax and Revenue Rob Capehart has proposed the idea of Lincoln/Douglas debates between the candidates for governor. Dan Moore has declined to participate but Monty Warner has agreed to debate; the details remain to be worked out. "Rob’s campaign has put forward specific plans on reforming the tax system, higher education, and workers compensation." Capehart is a WVU alum, current tax law professor, and pro-life. His website is highly functional, even featuring a forum for discussing "his campaign, platform, and pressing political issues for West Virginia". Dan Moore, long time chairman and CEO of Matewan Bancshares, a West Virginia bank. He went on to partner in a building supplies company, and owns five auto dealerships with his wife. He has ties to both WVU and Marshall. Curiously, he didn't become a Republican until age 60, two years ago. He's supported by some big-bucks members of the BushCheney West Virginia operation. Monty Warner proves popular suspicion that half of all Virginians are named Warner. Monty's brother Kris Warner is chairman of the WEST Virginia Republican Party, plus there's Senator John Warner and Governor Mark Warner, both of Virginia. Monty was a West Point grad and served 29 years in the Army. Recently he was state Inspector General for two years. By the Numbers
Prognosis Let's be honest. This is still a Democrat state, although trending Republican. Joe Manchin, or whoever the Democrats nominate, starts out with an edge, although a competitive campaign could be a major test of what has become a moribund and stale Democratic Party.
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MissouriIncumbent "One Term" Bob Holden, Democrat Election margin 50-49 over then-US Rep Jim Talent Seeking re-election Yes Primary oppostion Serious challenge from state auditor Claire McCaskill. Primary date August 3rd
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Matt Blunt
Bob Holden Claire McCaskill
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Secretary of State Matt Blunt became the de facto Republican nominee when US Rep. Kenny Hulshof decided not to run. Blunt is the 33-year-old son of US Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri. The younger Blunt was a state representative until winning election as Secretary of State in 2000, the only Republican to win statewide office that year. He has cut staffing and spending during his one term in office. Blunt has no serious challengers in the primary. He's pro-business and pro-life, and has initiatives on tort reform and abortion to push those agendas. Governor Bob Holden has suffered through a troublesome first term in office, earning the moniker "One Term Bob". Voters elected a Republican-dominated legislature in 2002, which has given the governor fits. His state of the state address in 2004 was a broadside against the Republican legislature, accusing them of underfunding schools and lots of nastier things. His rhetoric should help rally the Democratic Party behind him as he faces a primary. Many pundits and politicos in both parties see him as a probable loser in the 2004 election, a perception that has spawned the candidacy of . . . . . . current State Auditor Claire McCaskill. She has an uphill fight to knock off Holden in the Democratic primary, however, as Holden has a significant bankroll and the support of the national Democrat establishment. By the Numbers
Prognosis Blunt will be favored in this race. A contentious primary is bad news for the Democrats. Missouri is a swing state, so look for significant spending by both presidential nominees.
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WashingtonIncumbent Gary Locke, Democrat Seeking re-election Locke, threatened with a primary challenge, will not seek a third term. Primary date September 14th
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Dino Rossi
Ron Sims
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State senator Dino Rossi will be the Republican nominee. He has had strong fundraising after a late start to his campaign. A conservative with a moderate image, Rossi may be just the ticket to unite the often fractious GOP and go after the muddy middle. Rossi resigned his senate seat in December in order to continue raising money while the state senate is in session, which would have been prohibited under Washington campaign finance law. (Gregoire is bound by the restriction.) Dino has said that to run a successful campaign he'll need over $4 million. Republican Federico Uribe-Cruz is running but hasn't drawn much interest. Many question the health department director's credentials for the governorship. Attorney General Christine Gregiore is the frontrunning Democrat, popular and powerful. Conventional wisdom says she has the nomination locked up. I agree. King County Executive Ron Sims trails Gregoire in the Democrat primary. He threatened to challenge Locke in a primary but now finds himself staring up at Gregoire. State Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge is the third Democrat candidate. He's been an announced candidate forever, a favorite of the teachers' union, but hasn't gained much traction beyond that. By the Numbers
Prognosis Uphill battle for Rossi, but he's a good candidate. Not well known yet, so his poll numbers are low. His campaign describes the race against Gregoire as similar to running against an incumbent. One factor that may come into play is Washington's late primary date, September 14th, especially if Sims and Talmadge continue to draw strong interest as Gregoire alternatives and fracture the Democratic base.
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DelawareIncumbent Ruth Ann Minner, Democrat Election margin 59-41 over former Delaware Chamber of Commerce President John Burris Seeking re-election Yes Primary oppostion None. Primary Date September 11th Political Resource Delaware Grapevine, insightful insider political site.
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Bill Lee
Ruth Ann Minner
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The Republicans William Swain Lee, aka Bill Lee, former state supreme court justice, is the front-runner and favored candidate of the influential DuPont family. Lee is running as a political outsider. He is virtually assured the nomination. Lee rose to public prominence presiding over the 17-month murder trial of Thomas J. Capano, who killed his former mistress and dumped her body in the Atlantic; Lee sentenced him to death. Mike Protack is a commercial airline pilot and former platoon commander, pilot, and recruiter in the U.S. Marines. The U. Delaware grad lost to Ray Clatworthy for the U.S. Senate nomination in 2002. By the Numbers
Prognosis Ruth Ann Minner is the safest Democrat in 2004. The former receptionist for Governor Tribbitt rose to become state senator, lieutenant governor, and then Delaware's first woman governor. Delaware is a historically Republican state that, along with much of the northeast, has trended toward the Democrats. Bill Lee has the GOP united behind him this time after losing in the 2000 primary, but he'll need an aggressive campaign and help from BushCheney to pull out an upset victory.
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IndianaIncumbent Joe Kernan, Democrat Seeking re-election Yes, Lt. Gov. Kernan assumed the governorship in 2003 after the sudden death of Governor Frank O'Bannon and will seek a full term in 2004. Primary oppostion None. Primary Date May 4th
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Mitch Daniels
Joe Kernan
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The Republicans Mitch Daniels, OMB head, former Eli Lilly executive and Lugar chief of staff. Daniels has strong establishment and grassroots support and will be the nominee. He has been traveling around Indiana in a campaign RV, has visited all 92 counties at least once so far and is on his second tour of the state. Randy Harris, Petersburg mayor. Eric Miller, conservative activist. Bob Parker, Indianapolis businessman. By the Numbers
Prognosis Kernan and Daniels will face off in a close, closely watched matchup -- right now it's a tossup. At this point some are still deciding what to think about their new governor, Kernan, and only about half of poll respondents have an opinion regarding Mitch Daniels, who has never held elective office and has not yet purchased TV advertising. This puppy is still in the developing stage, although the Republican primary is coming right up on May 4th.
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New HampshireIncumbent Craig Benson, Republican Election margin 58-38 over state senator Mark Fernald Seeking re-election Yes Primary oppostion: None. Primary Date September 14th Political Resource PoliticsNH.com, the best state-specific site in the nation.
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Craig Benson
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Governor Craig Benson won election handily and is still fairly popular. New Hampshire governors serve 2-year terms and are typically returned for a second term, at least. The Democrats What Democrats? No one has come forward to run yet. The flavor of the month is long time Agriculture Commissioner Steve Taylor, who says he's seriously considering running -- but is busy with his family farms and has no money for a campaign. By the Numbers
Prognosis Benson is heavily favored for a second term.
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VermontIncumbent Jim Douglas, Republican Election margin 44.9 to 42.4 to 9.7 over Lt. Gov Doug Racine and independent candidate Con Hogan Seeking re-election Yes, Douglas will seek a second 2-year term. Primary oppostion None. Primary Date September 14th
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Jim Douglas
Pete Clavelle
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Governor Jim Douglas succeeded Howard Dean as Governor of Vermont after previously serving as Secretary of State and then State Treasurer for the better part of 22 years. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine in a close 3-way race in 2002. Douglas will be 53 in June. Pete Clavelle is the mayor of Burlington, currently unopposed in the Democratic primary. By the Numbers
Prognosis Clavelle is considered a strong challenger, although Vermonters are generally reluctant to eject their governors after only one two-year term -- and Governor Jim Douglas is a popular, long-time public servant.
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UtahIncumbent Olene Walker, Republican. Lt. Gov. Walker assumed the governorship in 2003 when Gov. Mike Leavitt resigned to head the EPA. Seeking re-election Maybe, maybe not Primary oppostion Lots; this is essentially an open seat race. Primary Date June 22nd
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Olene Walker
Marty Stephens Fred Lampropoulos Gary Herbert Jim Hansen Scott Matheson, Jr.
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73-year-old Governor Olene Walker has so far avoided the question of whether she will seek election to a full term after succeeding Mike Leavitt on November 5th. Even if she runs she'll have quite a race to garner the GOP nomination in a crowded primary. She is a Mormon. State Senator and businessman Parley Hellewell is running to lower taxes and remove counterproductive laws from the books. He is a Mormon. Who is Nolan Karras? Former state house speaker, finance chair of the Finance Chairman for the Salt Lake Olympic Organizing Committee, and current Chair of the Board of Regents. Karras is a Weber State and U. Utah alumnus. He is a Mormon. Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr. He is a Mormon. Jim Hansen. He is a Mormon. Gary Herbert. He is a Mormon. Merit Medical CEO Fred Lampropoulos has spent over $600,000 on radio ads and outreach to Republican activists. He is a Mormon. State House Speaker Marty Stephens of Farr West, a Mormon. Scott Matheson, Jr. is the son of former governor Scott Matheson and the brother of Utah Congressman Jim Matheson. Scott is the dean of the University of Utah law school and former Assistant D.A. He is a Mormon. By the Numbers
Prognosis The Matheson name is the only thing that can get a Democrat elected in Utah. Fortunately for them, a Matheson is running, so this race will be a humdinger! guaranteed to be full of Mormons.
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North DakotaIncumbent John Hoeven, Republican. Election margin 55-45 over state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp
Seeking re-election Yes, Hoeven will seek a second term.
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John Hoeven
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By the Numbers
Prognosis Hoeven will win a second term. The real question is where he will go from there, House or Senate.
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MontanaIncumbent Judy Martz, Republican Seeking re-election No, Martz will retire after one troublesome term. Primary Date June 8th
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Bob Brown Tom Keating
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The Republicans Former Secretary of State Bob Brown, a retired teacher. Running mate: state rep. and former state budget director Dave Lewis. Pat Davison, a 46-year-old Billings businessman, is running a well-funded campaign centered on an anti-tax platform. Tom Keating, former state senator. Running mate: PSC Commissioner Matt Brainard. Ken Miller, former state senator and state GOP chairman. Democrat Brian Schweitzer, a wealthy farmer, lost a close race to Senator Conrad Burns in 2000 and is still well-known. By the Numbers
Prognosis Bob Brown is the leading candidate for the Republican nomination and would have a slight edge over Brian Schweitzer in the general election.
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