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Johnny Z's Look at the Governors' Races of 2004


Johnny Z Home

Election 2004 * Charlotte * State Legislatures * Governors * US House * US Senate * Senate 06

 
******PREDICTIONS******

Republican Victories (7)
Indiana Daniels 54, Kernan 46
Missouri M. Blunt 52, McCaskill 48
Montana Brown 50, Schweitzer 50 (Brown wins)
New Hampshire Benson 53, Lynch 47
North Dakota Hoeven 69, Satrom 31
Utah Huntsman 56, Matheson 44
Vermont Douglas 55, Clavelle 45

Democrat Victories (4)
North Carolina Easley 54, Ballantine 46
Delaware Minner 58, Lee 42
Washington Gregoire 50.5, Rossi 49.5
West Virginia Manchin 57, Warner 43

There are 11 governors seats up in 2004. Five states (Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont) are currently governed by Republicans and six by Democrats (Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Washington, West Virginia). Three governors read the writing on the wall and chose not to run for re-election: Bob Wise of West Virginia gave it up after admitting to a marital infidelity with a state employee, while Judy Martz of Montana suffered through one trouble-plagued term, and Gary Locke of Washington was facing possible opposition for renomination. Even if Governor Bob Holden of Missouri can beat back a primary challenge from State Auditor Claire McCaskill, he'll have a tough row to hoe in the general election after four years of being browbeaten by the Republican state legislature. The other incumbent governors are at least even odds to win another term in 2004.

Last Updated March 14th


Lean Democrat
West Virginia Open
Washington Open
North Carolina Mike Easley

Likely Democrat
Delaware Ruth Ann Minner
Tossup
Indiana Joe Kernan
Montana Open
Vermont Jim Douglas

Projected Control
6 Republican
5 Democrat
Lean Republican
Missouri Bob Holden
Utah Open

Likely Republican
North Dakota John Hoeven
New Hampshire Craig Benson



North Carolina


Incumbent Mike Easley, Democrat
Election margin 52-47 over ex-mayor Richard Vinroot of Charlotte
Seeking re-election Yes
Primary Date July 20, probably.
Primary Runoff August 17, probably.
Political Sites Down East Republican, Carolina Journal

Patrick Ballantine

Bill Cobey

Richard Vinroot

George W. Little

Dan Barrett

Fern Shubert

Mike Easley

The race for the GOP nomination still has a long way to go, with a primary date uncertain due to redistricting lawsuits. The field consists of former Charlotte mayor and 2000 governor nominee Richard Vinroot, former GOP Chairman and Congressman Bill Cobey, NC Senate minority leader Patrick Ballantine, Davie County Commissioner and business lawyer Dan Barrett, businessman George Little, and state Senator Fern Shubert.

Rematches are generally a losing proposition in politics, and there is little appetite for another Richard Vinroot run after he lost to Easley 52-47 in 2000. The ex-mayor seems ready to prove the old adage that there's no life after city hall (although ex-mayor and current Congresswoman Sue Myrick might have something to say to that.) However, Vinroot still leads in the polls as his competitors slowly build name recognition.

Bill Cobey resigned as state GOP chairman in July 2003 and soon picked up the endorsement of Senator Jesse Helms. Cobey has an extensive and varied resume: congressman, UNC athletic director, and appointed head of two departments of state government. He is running on a platform of education, lower taxes, and economic development, and has criticized Easley on illegal immigration and everything else.

Patrick Ballantine, 38, seems a bit boyish to be running for governor. He has, however, compiled a solid conservative record in the NC Senate representing Wilmington (far eastern NC) and has proven to be a responsible legislative leader. It is partly due to his efforts that Republicans gained several seats in the senate in 2002, and came close to taking control of the chamber. He has garnered support from a large number of state legislators. Ballantine, a UNC grad, is still not very well known in the state.

State senator Fern Shubert is not shy about speaking her mind. The only woman candidate, Shubert bases her platform on economic development (she has been noted as a particularly business-friendly legislator), opposition to illegal immigration (specifically drivers licenses for illegals, an Easley policy), and better roads and schools. The main question with Shubert is whether she can raise the money to wage a statewide campaign.

George W. Little ("the other Dubya") is a long-time Republican activist and insurance company owner. Little, 61, is a former vice chairman of the NC state economic development board. He is a UNC grad and hails from Southern Pines, near Pinehurst and Fayetteville. Little is a powerful speaker with a booming baritone voice, and would make a powerful contrast to sissy-boy Governor Easley. George W. also has extensive fundraising contacts after many years of helping to finance others' runs for office.

Dan Barrett, 42, has been talked up for various political offices but the governorship seems an unlikely step for this rising politician. He does have a message that is calculated to take on Easley, though. Barrett makes a point of Easley's withholding money from local governments to pay for massive state spending increases. Barrett has strong retail political skills, but doesn't have the resources to take his campaign wholesale through TV ads.

The geographic diversity of the field is astounding. Ballantine from the east (Wilmington), Cobey from Durham, Barrett from the Winston-Salem area, and both Vinroot and Shubert from Charlotte, while George W. Little hails from Southern Pines, which is . . . well, it's east of Charlotte and south of Greensboro.

By the Numbers

SCIENTIFIC POLLS

Elon, Favorability
March 8-11, 563 adults
Total ~ Fav ~ Unfav

Easley 90.1 ~ 33.7 ~ 14.6
Vinroot 56.1 ~ 15.1 ~ 5.3
Ballantine 29.8 ~ 5.5 ~ 2.8
Cobey 22.9 ~ 5.5 ~ 2.7
Little 13.0 ~ 2.7 ~ 0.7
Shubert 10.7 ~ 2.1 ~ 0.9
Barrett 8.7 ~ 1.2 ~ 0.5

N&O/Research 2000
7.2 MOE, Jan. 10th

Vinroot 27%
Ballantine 16%
Cobey 14%
Barrett 3%
Shubert 2%
Little -%
Undecided 38%

McLaughlin & Assoc. - for Vinroot
Jan. 7-8th, 400 likely voters

Vinroot 37%
Ballantine 9%
Cobey 5%
Others 4%
Undecided 45%

SurveyUSA/WBTV
Dec. 10

Easley 54%
Vinroot 41%

Elon, Name Recognition
Oct. 27-30

Easley 91%
Vinroot 59%
Ballantine 28%
Cobey 26%
Little 12%
Shubert 12%
Barrett 11%

STRAW POLLS

Franklin County
March 19th

Bill Cobey 50%
Dan Barrett 25%
Pat Ballantine 17%
Richard Vinroot 6%
George Little 2%
Fern Shubert -%

Wayne County
March 12th

Bill Cobey 47%
Dan Barrett 37%
Pat Ballantine 5%
George Little 5%
Fern Shubert 4%
Richard Vinroot 2%

Mecklenburg County
March 6th

Bill Cobey 71 - 34.8%
Pat Ballantine 41 - 20.1%
Richard Vinroot 40 - 19.6%
Fern Shubert 29 - 14.2%
Dan Barrett 16 - 7.8%
George Little 7 - 3.4%

Harnett County
March 4th

George Little 38.9%
Bill Cobey 27.8%
Pat Ballantine 14.8%
Dan Barrett 9.3%
Fern Shubert 7.4%
Richard Vinroot 1.8%

Pitt County - Convention
March 1st

Pat Ballantine 67%
Bill Cobey 19%
Fern Shubert 14%
Richard Vinroot 0%
George Little 0%
Dan Barrett 0%

FUNDRAISING

Candidate
Easley
Ballantine
Cobey
Vinroot
Barrett
Shubert
Little


Pitt - Lincoln Day
February 7th

Pat Ballantine
Bill Cobey
Richard Vinroot
George Little
Fern Shubert
Dan Barrett

Gaston County
January 9th

Pat Ballantine
Bill Cobey
George Little
Richard Vinroot
Dan Barrett
Fern Shubert

Hall of Fame
November 15th

Bill Cobey
Pat Ballantine
George Little
Richard Vinroot
Fern Shubert
Dan Barrett

..... as of

Total
$*1,471,000
$1,200,000
$730,000
$---
$---
$---
$800,000





55%
34%
4%
2%
2%
1%




34.7%
22.8%
13.0%
13.0%
8.6%
7.6%




51.9%
31.6%
6.8%
4.0%
3.7%
1.7%
12/31/03

On Hand
$1,062,000
$---
$500,000+
$---
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up

Prognosis Easley is a relatively weak incumbent, having been elected promising to instate a lottery but has failed to get either an affirmative vote from the legislature or a referendum. It is unlikely that the lottery will go anywhere in the next year, and Easley doesn't have much to show for his time in office except for tax hikes three years in a row. Luckily for him, the asinine legislature has taken most of the burden and blame off of his shoulders, even making him look conservative at times, and while people aren't crazy about him they don't dislike him either.

I really wonder what is going through Vinroot's head, because Republicans across the state clearly do not want him to run again. Eventually his name identification edge will fade, and he'll either drop out or just lose in the primary. With months to go before the nomination Barrett, Little, and Shubert still have time to catch fire. But the race is probably between Cobey and Ballantine at this point.




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West Virginia


Incumbent Bob Wise, Democrat
Seeking re-election Wise had an affair with a state government employee and will not seek a second term.
Primary Date May 11th

Rob Capehart

Doug McKinney

Dan Moore

Monty Warner

Joe Manchin III

Lloyd Jackson

The Democrats

Lloyd Jackson is a respected state senator, so the Democrats won't nominate him.

Joe Manchin III is the safe, bland, establishment choice for the nomination, which means he'll almost certainly get it. Can an establishment Democrat stay completely unconnected to the shenanigans of Bob Wise? Has Wise hurt the party label for everyone? There's not too much evidence to say he has, but stay tuned.

The Republicans

Former Secretary of Tax and Revenue Rob Capehart has proposed the idea of Lincoln/Douglas debates between the candidates for governor. Dan Moore has declined to participate but Monty Warner has agreed to debate; the details remain to be worked out. "Rob’s campaign has put forward specific plans on reforming the tax system, higher education, and workers compensation." Capehart is a WVU alum, current tax law professor, and pro-life. His website is highly functional, even featuring a forum for discussing "his campaign, platform, and pressing political issues for West Virginia".

Dan Moore, long time chairman and CEO of Matewan Bancshares, a West Virginia bank. He went on to partner in a building supplies company, and owns five auto dealerships with his wife. He has ties to both WVU and Marshall. Curiously, he didn't become a Republican until age 60, two years ago. He's supported by some big-bucks members of the BushCheney West Virginia operation.

Monty Warner proves popular suspicion that half of all Virginians are named Warner. Monty's brother Kris Warner is chairman of the WEST Virginia Republican Party, plus there's Senator John Warner and Governor Mark Warner, both of Virginia. Monty was a West Point grad and served 29 years in the Army. Recently he was state Inspector General for two years.

By the Numbers

Poll Name
date conducted

Manchin -%
Capehart -%
Undecided -%

GOP Primary
12/17/03

Capehart 17%
*Minear 11%
McKinney 9%
Moore 6%
Warner 2%

* dropped out

Fundraising
Capehart
Jackson
Kizer
Manchin
McKinney
Moore
Warner

As of __/__

Total
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up Candidates must file campaign finance reports by the 2nd of April.

Prognosis Let's be honest. This is still a Democrat state, although trending Republican. Joe Manchin, or whoever the Democrats nominate, starts out with an edge, although a competitive campaign could be a major test of what has become a moribund and stale Democratic Party.




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Missouri


Incumbent "One Term" Bob Holden, Democrat
Election margin 50-49 over then-US Rep Jim Talent
Seeking re-election Yes
Primary oppostion Serious challenge from state auditor Claire McCaskill.
Primary date August 3rd

Matt Blunt

Bob Holden

Claire McCaskill

Secretary of State Matt Blunt became the de facto Republican nominee when US Rep. Kenny Hulshof decided not to run. Blunt is the 33-year-old son of US Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri. The younger Blunt was a state representative until winning election as Secretary of State in 2000, the only Republican to win statewide office that year. He has cut staffing and spending during his one term in office. Blunt has no serious challengers in the primary. He's pro-business and pro-life, and has initiatives on tort reform and abortion to push those agendas.

Governor Bob Holden has suffered through a troublesome first term in office, earning the moniker "One Term Bob". Voters elected a Republican-dominated legislature in 2002, which has given the governor fits. His state of the state address in 2004 was a broadside against the Republican legislature, accusing them of underfunding schools and lots of nastier things. His rhetoric should help rally the Democratic Party behind him as he faces a primary. Many pundits and politicos in both parties see him as a probable loser in the 2004 election, a perception that has spawned the candidacy of . . .

. . . current State Auditor Claire McCaskill. She has an uphill fight to knock off Holden in the Democratic primary, however, as Holden has a significant bankroll and the support of the national Democrat establishment.

By the Numbers

Poll Name
date conducted

Blunt -%
Holden -%
Undecided -%

Democrat Primary
date conducted

Holden -%
McCaskill -%

Poll Name
date conducted

Blunt -%
Holden -%
Undecided -%

Fundraising
Holden
McCaskill
Blunt

As of __/__

Total
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up There has got to be a poll coming out at some point. The last one I could find was from August, showing Holden unpopular and losing to Blunt in a general election matchup. Sure, Missouri has a relatively late primary, but throw us a bone here!

Prognosis Blunt will be favored in this race. A contentious primary is bad news for the Democrats. Missouri is a swing state, so look for significant spending by both presidential nominees.




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Washington


Incumbent Gary Locke, Democrat
Seeking re-election Locke, threatened with a primary challenge, will not seek a third term.
Primary date September 14th

Dino Rossi


Chris Gregoire

Ron Sims


Phil Talmadge

State senator Dino Rossi will be the Republican nominee. He has had strong fundraising after a late start to his campaign. A conservative with a moderate image, Rossi may be just the ticket to unite the often fractious GOP and go after the muddy middle. Rossi resigned his senate seat in December in order to continue raising money while the state senate is in session, which would have been prohibited under Washington campaign finance law. (Gregoire is bound by the restriction.) Dino has said that to run a successful campaign he'll need over $4 million.

Republican Federico Uribe-Cruz is running but hasn't drawn much interest. Many question the health department director's credentials for the governorship.

Attorney General Christine Gregiore is the frontrunning Democrat, popular and powerful. Conventional wisdom says she has the nomination locked up. I agree.

King County Executive Ron Sims trails Gregoire in the Democrat primary. He threatened to challenge Locke in a primary but now finds himself staring up at Gregoire.

State Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge is the third Democrat candidate. He's been an announced candidate forever, a favorite of the teachers' union, but hasn't gained much traction beyond that.

By the Numbers

Mellman Group
Nov. 21-24

Gregoire 46%
Rossi 27%
Undecided 27%

Sims 36%
Rossi 32%
Undecided 32%

Mellman: Primary
date conducted

Gregoire 48%
Sims 19%
Talmadge 6%
Undecided 27%

Fundraising
Gregoire
Rossi
Sims
Talmadge

Uribe-Cruz

As of __/__

Total
$1,400,000
$615,662
$350,000
$150,000
$42,000

Cash On Hand
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up Official year-end fundraising figures come out. An investigation into Gregoire's fundraising tactics in conjuction with EMILY's List.

Prognosis Uphill battle for Rossi, but he's a good candidate. Not well known yet, so his poll numbers are low. His campaign describes the race against Gregoire as similar to running against an incumbent. One factor that may come into play is Washington's late primary date, September 14th, especially if Sims and Talmadge continue to draw strong interest as Gregoire alternatives and fracture the Democratic base.




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Delaware


Incumbent Ruth Ann Minner, Democrat
Election margin 59-41 over former Delaware Chamber of Commerce President John Burris
Seeking re-election Yes
Primary oppostion None.
Primary Date September 11th
Political Resource Delaware Grapevine, insightful insider political site.

Bill Lee

Mike Protack

Ruth Ann Minner

The Republicans

William Swain Lee, aka Bill Lee, former state supreme court justice, is the front-runner and favored candidate of the influential DuPont family. Lee is running as a political outsider. He is virtually assured the nomination. Lee rose to public prominence presiding over the 17-month murder trial of Thomas J. Capano, who killed his former mistress and dumped her body in the Atlantic; Lee sentenced him to death.

Mike Protack is a commercial airline pilot and former platoon commander, pilot, and recruiter in the U.S. Marines. The U. Delaware grad lost to Ray Clatworthy for the U.S. Senate nomination in 2002.

By the Numbers

Mason-Dixon
late October
625 registered, 4% MOE

Minner 46%
Lee 36%
Undecided 18%

Mason-Dixon
late October
306 likely GOP, 6% MOE

* Brady 39%
Lee 28%
* Spence 5%
Protack 3%
Undecided 25%

* not running

Fundraising
Minner
Lee
Protack

As of __/__

Total
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up Maybe Bill Lee will add something to his barebones website at some point.

Prognosis Ruth Ann Minner is the safest Democrat in 2004. The former receptionist for Governor Tribbitt rose to become state senator, lieutenant governor, and then Delaware's first woman governor. Delaware is a historically Republican state that, along with much of the northeast, has trended toward the Democrats. Bill Lee has the GOP united behind him this time after losing in the 2000 primary, but he'll need an aggressive campaign and help from BushCheney to pull out an upset victory.




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Indiana


Incumbent Joe Kernan, Democrat
Seeking re-election Yes, Lt. Gov. Kernan assumed the governorship in 2003 after the sudden death of Governor Frank O'Bannon and will seek a full term in 2004.
Primary oppostion None.
Primary Date May 4th

Mitch Daniels

Randy Harris

Eric Miller

Joe Kernan

The Republicans

Mitch Daniels, OMB head, former Eli Lilly executive and Lugar chief of staff. Daniels has strong establishment and grassroots support and will be the nominee. He has been traveling around Indiana in a campaign RV, has visited all 92 counties at least once so far and is on his second tour of the state.

Randy Harris, Petersburg mayor.

Eric Miller, conservative activist.

Bob Parker, Indianapolis businessman.

By the Numbers

Selzer & Co./Indy Star
January 9-13
704 adults, 3.7% MOE

Kernan 49%
Daniels 36%
Not Sure 11%
Not Vote/Other 4%

GOP Primary
date conducted

Daniels --%
Harris --%
Miller --%
Parker --%

Fundraising
Daniels
Kernan
Harris
Miller
Parker

As of 12/31

Total
$4,700,000
$2,500,000
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$4,040,000
$4,030,000
$---
$900,000
$---

Coming Up Full campaign finance reports are due January 21st.

Prognosis Kernan and Daniels will face off in a close, closely watched matchup -- right now it's a tossup. At this point some are still deciding what to think about their new governor, Kernan, and only about half of poll respondents have an opinion regarding Mitch Daniels, who has never held elective office and has not yet purchased TV advertising. This puppy is still in the developing stage, although the Republican primary is coming right up on May 4th.




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New Hampshire


Incumbent Craig Benson, Republican
Election margin 58-38 over state senator Mark Fernald
Seeking re-election Yes
Primary oppostion: None.
Primary Date September 14th
Political Resource PoliticsNH.com, the best state-specific site in the nation.

Craig Benson

Governor Craig Benson won election handily and is still fairly popular. New Hampshire governors serve 2-year terms and are typically returned for a second term, at least.

The Democrats

What Democrats? No one has come forward to run yet. The flavor of the month is long time Agriculture Commissioner Steve Taylor, who says he's seriously considering running -- but is busy with his family farms and has no money for a campaign.

By the Numbers

Poll Name
date conducted

Benson -%
Opponent -%
Undecided -%

Fundraising
Benson

As of __/__

Total
$---

Cash On Hand
$---

Coming Up The Democrats will choose a candidate at some point. Any time now, guys . . .

Prognosis Benson is heavily favored for a second term.




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Vermont


Incumbent Jim Douglas, Republican
Election margin 44.9 to 42.4 to 9.7 over Lt. Gov Doug Racine and independent candidate Con Hogan
Seeking re-election Yes, Douglas will seek a second 2-year term.
Primary oppostion None.
Primary Date September 14th

Jim Douglas

Pete Clavelle

Governor Jim Douglas succeeded Howard Dean as Governor of Vermont after previously serving as Secretary of State and then State Treasurer for the better part of 22 years. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine in a close 3-way race in 2002. Douglas will be 53 in June.

Pete Clavelle is the mayor of Burlington, currently unopposed in the Democratic primary.

By the Numbers

Poll Name
date conducted

Douglas -%
Clavelle -%
Undecided -%

Fundraising
Douglas
Clavelle

As of __/__

Total
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$---
$---

Coming Up Will Pete Clavelle get a challenger?

Prognosis Clavelle is considered a strong challenger, although Vermonters are generally reluctant to eject their governors after only one two-year term -- and Governor Jim Douglas is a popular, long-time public servant.




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Utah


Incumbent Olene Walker, Republican. Lt. Gov. Walker assumed the governorship in 2003 when Gov. Mike Leavitt resigned to head the EPA.
Seeking re-election Maybe, maybe not
Primary oppostion Lots; this is essentially an open seat race.
Primary Date June 22nd

Olene Walker


Parley Hellewell

Marty Stephens

Jon Huntsman

Nolan Karras

Fred Lampropoulos

Gary Herbert

Jim Hansen

Scott Matheson, Jr.

73-year-old Governor Olene Walker has so far avoided the question of whether she will seek election to a full term after succeeding Mike Leavitt on November 5th. Even if she runs she'll have quite a race to garner the GOP nomination in a crowded primary. She is a Mormon.

State Senator and businessman Parley Hellewell is running to lower taxes and remove counterproductive laws from the books. He is a Mormon.

Who is Nolan Karras? Former state house speaker, finance chair of the Finance Chairman for the Salt Lake Olympic Organizing Committee, and current Chair of the Board of Regents. Karras is a Weber State and U. Utah alumnus. He is a Mormon.

Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr. He is a Mormon.

Jim Hansen. He is a Mormon.

Gary Herbert. He is a Mormon.

Merit Medical CEO Fred Lampropoulos has spent over $600,000 on radio ads and outreach to Republican activists. He is a Mormon.

State House Speaker Marty Stephens of Farr West, a Mormon.

Scott Matheson, Jr. is the son of former governor Scott Matheson and the brother of Utah Congressman Jim Matheson. Scott is the dean of the University of Utah law school and former Assistant D.A. He is a Mormon.

By the Numbers

Poll Name
date conducted

Matheson -%
Huntsman -%

Fundraising
Huntsman
Lampropoulos
Karras
Herbert
Walker
Stephens
Hansen
Hellewell
Matheson

As of 12/31

Total
$---
$---
$298,699
$184,492
$101,600
$---
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$166,000
$350,000
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up Parley Hellewell celebrates his 54th birthday on February 1st. The state GOP convention in May will narrow the field to two primary contestants -- bet on Jon Huntsman and . . . ?

Prognosis The Matheson name is the only thing that can get a Democrat elected in Utah. Fortunately for them, a Matheson is running, so this race will be a humdinger! guaranteed to be full of Mormons.




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North Dakota


Incumbent John Hoeven, Republican.
Election margin 55-45 over state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp

Seeking re-election Yes, Hoeven will seek a second term.
Primary oppostion Nada.
Primary Date June 8th

John Hoeven


Merle Boucher


Joe Satrom with Howard Dean

By the Numbers

Prairie Poll
Approval Rating
Unscientific
December 2003

Byron Dorgan 65%
Kent Conrad 62%
John Hoeven 61%
Earl Pomeroy 53%

Prairie Poll
General Election

Hoeven 38%
Satrom 4%
Undecided 58%

Fundraising
Hoeven
Boucher
Satrom

As of __/__

Total
$---
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$---
$---
$---

Coming Up Soon the Democrats will decide whether to concede the election or actually run a candidate.

Prognosis Hoeven will win a second term. The real question is where he will go from there, House or Senate.




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Montana


Incumbent Judy Martz, Republican
Seeking re-election No, Martz will retire after one troublesome term.
Primary Date June 8th


Bob Brown


Pat Davison

Ken Miller

Tom Keating


Brian Schweitzer

The Republicans

Former Secretary of State Bob Brown, a retired teacher. Running mate: state rep. and former state budget director Dave Lewis.

Pat Davison, a 46-year-old Billings businessman, is running a well-funded campaign centered on an anti-tax platform.

Tom Keating, former state senator. Running mate: PSC Commissioner Matt Brainard.

Ken Miller, former state senator and state GOP chairman.

Democrat Brian Schweitzer, a wealthy farmer, lost a close race to Senator Conrad Burns in 2000 and is still well-known.

By the Numbers

Mason-Dixon
Dec. 8-10, 4%MOE

Schweitzer 42%
Brown 39%
Undecided 19%

Schweitzer 44%
Keating 27%
Undecided 29%

Schweitzer 43%
Miller 26%
Undecided 31%

Schweitzer 45%
Davison 27%
Undecided 28%

Mason-Dixon
Name Recognition
Favorable/Unfav/Neutral/Unk

Schweitzer 35/14/43/8
Brown 28/6/43/23
Keating 12/7/38/43
Miller 11/4/20/65
Davison 10/3/27/60

GOP Primary
date conducted

Brown --%
Davison --%
Miller --%
Keating --%

Fundraising
Schweitzer
Davison
Brown
Miller
Keating

As of __/__

Total
$630,000
$250,000
$198,000
$---
$---

Cash On Hand
$390,000
$---
$138,000
$---
$---

Coming Up Will Schweitzer have company in the Democratic primary? Retired teacher and current Gallatin County Commissioner John Vincent is thinking about throwing his hat in.

Prognosis Bob Brown is the leading candidate for the Republican nomination and would have a slight edge over Brian Schweitzer in the general election.




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