SEPTEMBER 1st UPDATE: I'm moving Florida into lean Republican based on the strength of the Mel Martinez primary victory. Colorado is now a tossup, with a slight edge to Democrat Salazar. Louisiana is a tossup with three Democrats in the race. South Carolina leans Republican, and while North Carolina would go for Bowles if the election were held today, elections are held on November 2nd this year, and as such it is a toss-up for now. South Dakota is now a toss-up after the most recent poll showing John Thune with a 2-point lead over Daschle.

OCTOBER 27th UPDATE: I'm picking a Republican sweep. Didn't think that would be the case, and Democrats certainly have some good chances at wins, but I have each individual race with a greater than 50% chance of the Republican winning. I realize I'm out on a limb here, so we'll see how it goes.

******FINAL PREDICTIONS******

Democrat Seats

Georgia: Zell Miller

Isakson - Collins - Cain - Bartell

GOP Nominee Pro-abortion U.S. Rep. Johnny Isakson, 58, is running, and is a good bet to make the runoff. As a moderate in a conservative party, he may have difficulty surviving a runoff. He's pretty much sewn up the endorsement of the radical leftist Atlanta Jornal-Constitution, for whatever that's worth. Michael "Mac" Collins, 58, is running as well, and will pick up more conservative and rural support. Collins owns a trucking company and draws rural and blue collar support. He would have strong crossover appeal in the general election, but he needs to get those rural conservatives to vote in the Republican primary. His fundraising has been less than spectacular so far. Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, national co-chair of Steve Forbes' 2000 presidential bid, should garner a great deal of attention as an eminently credentialed conservative and black Republican. Should he be elected he would be enormously influential in the national Republican party, and be high profile in terms of promoting the conservative philosophy and appeal to blacks to consider the GOP. Cain is a rock solid conservative, an advocate of a radically reformed income tax such as a flat tax or national sales tax. Cain has deep Atlanta roots as a Morehouse alumnus and trustee and would be a stellar candidate. Cain has leaped into second place in the money race with a wide base of donors and a personal loan; he has already been running commercials on both TV and radio to increase his name ID. The fourth candidate is motivational speaker Al Bartell, another black Republican businessman, who ran for lieutenant governor in 2002.

Democrat Nominee White state legislator Mary Squires, who famously called Governor Sonny Perdue a racist for supporting a referendum on the state flag, is running. Democrats have been desperately searching for a candidate who wasn't such a loon, and may have found a more suitable sacrificial lamb in Dekalb County lawyer and former magistrate Gary Leshaw, who is white. Still, I think the favorite for the nomination has to be black state Senator Nadine Thomas, who should prevail in the primary but lose badly in the general election. Democrats don't appear to be serious about contesting this seat.

Prognosis This open seat leans strongly Republican; the GOP primary should be a thriller, while the Democrats can't be too excited about their chances. After a spotty start to his campaign, it’s looking more likely that Herman Cain will overtake Mac Collins for the second runoff spot against Isakson.

South Carolina: Ernest "Fritz" Hollings

Democrat Nominee State commissioner of education Inez Tenenbaum is running virtually unopposed. She's well-liked, twice elected statewide, and non-controversial. However, she's never had to face a real political race with real issues, and her liberal stands will take a toll on her favorability rating when they come out.

Republican Nominee Rep. Jim DeMint, who has limited himself to 3 terms, will run; he is a rock-solid conservative with a large campaign account that he’s saving for a late advertising blitz. Also running are former AG Charlie Condon, who lost the governor's primary to Mark Sanford; Myrtle Beach mayor Mark McBride; and developer Thomas Ravenel of Charleston, who brings a significant bankroll and political name to the field.

The big dog is former Governor David Beasley, who just got in the race on January 14th. Polls show Beasley in the lead in the primary and running ahead of Tenenbaum in the general election. At this point it looks like Beasley and DeMint will face off in an almost guaranteed runoff.

Prognosis Federal races in South Carolina are GOP territory. Inez could make this a race if she adds economic isolationism to her appeal to women voters. But woe to her if she comes out as a social liberal! Democrats' best hope is with a controversial Republican nominee like Condon to take the focus off their weak position and focus on tearing down the opponent. Beasley will be favored to go all the way, but the primary will be tight and DeMint, Condon, and Ravenel all have realistic shots. Issues to watch: trade, geography, gay marriage.

North Carolina: John Edwards

GOP Nominee US Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, a solid conservative, is an attractive candidate who can win votes in the ever-growing suburbs. Burr has been unofficially annointed by the White House to challenge for the seat, and it's probably all over but the shouting. He has over $5 million in the bank and kicked off his statewide campaign Valentine’s Day weekend. The latest poll shows Burr trailing Bowled by 5% in a general election matchup. That's a good sign, considering Burr is still not very well known across the state and hasn't started advertising. Bowles has some left-over unpopularity from his attacks on Elizabeth Dole as the Democrat nominee for senate in 2002.

Dem Nominee Bowles is considered to be a strong nominee, building on his okay performance in a compressed election season in 2002, and has almost $2 million cash on hand (although some of his supporters from 2002 are now giving to Burr). He has significant personal wealth he could tap, as he did in 2002 with $6.8 million in personal funds. Former state house speaker Dan Blue, who is black, lost the nomination to Bowles in 2002 but may give it another shot. He’s been kicking an announcement of his intentions down the road every week or so. Reaction among Democrats to another Blue run has been mixed -- many want to avoid a competitive primary, even while some doubt Bowles' strength as a candidate.

Prognosis This race leans Republican, as North Carolina Republicans are motivated to take control of the governorship from uninspiring Democrat Mike Easley, re-elect George W. Bush, and seize the other senate seat after Liddy Dole won by the largest margin in an age, 54-45, in 2002. Burr is the perfect candidate, willing to stand up for fairness in trade (supporting fast track but opposing MFN and PNTR for China) and touting a conservative line on spending, taxes, and social issues.

Florida: OPEN (Bob Graham)

Republican Nominee Former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez is slightly trailing 2000 nominee, former US Rep. Bill McCollum, to start the race. A Research 2000 poll February 18-22 showed McCollum with 37%, Martinez 15%, Byrd 6%, and Webster 5%. A poll the first week of March showed McCollum and Martinez at 19% and 18%, respectively. As a pro-life fiscally conservative Cuban, Martinez appeals to all segments of the Republican Party and a strong majority of Floridians, and will likely gain on McCollum as the campaign progresses. McCollum has the name identification -- both positive and negative -- and a strong record on terrorism issues.

State Senator Daniel Webster and house speaker Johnnie Byrd are both solid conservatives, but they're not going to be able to generate enough momentum with McCollum blocking the way. Byrd has the stronger bid of the two, as he leads the Republican candidates in fund-raising, but Webster has made steady progress and won endorsements from US Reps. Tom Feeney and Dave Weldon.

Former US Senator Connie Mack is supporting McCollum, as are Cuban congressbrothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart. US Rep. Mark Foley, who dropped out of the race in 2003, has endorsed Mel Martinez, as has Cuban US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Deutsch - Penelas - Castor

Democrat Nominee There are three candidates in the running, with former Education Commissioner Betty Castor slightly ahead of US Rep. Peter Deutsch and Maimi-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas. African-American former impeached judge and current US Rep. Alcee Hastings considered a candidacy before endorsing Deutsch, who also claims the support of racist US Rep. Corrine Brown. Black US Rep. Kendrick Meek endorsed Penelas. Those endorsements should translate into votes, as both Meek and Alcee claim to be able to deliver votes through their local party machines. No word on if or who the other three Democrat reps will endorse.

Deutsch has money and establishment support; Penelas could break the GOP lock on the Cuban vote; and Castor, 62, will base her campaign on education and electability. She leads Deutsch and Penelas in the polls but trails them significantly in fundraising. The Research 2000 poll showed Castor 36, Penelas 19, Deutsch 18, while the St. Pete Times poll had Castor up as well.

Prognosis With Mel Martinez as the nominee, this seat leans Republican. But the primaries are far from over.

Louisiana: OPEN (John Breaux)

Republican Popular congressmen David Vitter is so far is unopposed. He has $1.8 million cash on hand, dwarfing the funds of both John and Kennedy.

Democrat Cajun Congressman Chris John has the support of Senator Breaux, but popular state Treasurer John Kennedy is even or ahead of him in the polls.

Prognosis Leans slightly Democrat; the state is conservative, but it takes the right kind of Republican-Democrat matchup to result in a winning coalition for the Republican. The last open-seat race, in 1996, was the closest in the nation. Louisiana has a "jungle" primary, where all candidates run together in a general election, regardless of party affiliation, with no party nominating process; if no candidate receives 50%, there is a runoff between the top two vote-getters.

Nevada: Harry Reid

Opponent Conservative businessman and pro-marriage activist Richard Ziser intends to run a principled campaign from the right, and has a ready-made issue with the current gay marriage debate. Wealthy developer and veteran Jack Woodcock will run as well, and is prepared to put some of his own money into the race.

Prognosis Congressional Republicans took just over SIXTY PERCENT of the vote in 2002; Reps. Jon Porter and Jim Gibbons combined won 150,000 votes, good for 50% of the total congressional vote in Nevada's three congressional districts. Harry Reid is vulnerable but it will take a skillful campaign to unseat him, and he is the strong favorite after dodging a high-profile challenger.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln

Opponent State senator Jim Holt and businessman Tom Formicola are running; Holt could really take it to Lincoln, press her hard on her vulnerability as a social liberal. Sheriff Andy Lee, famous for innovative crime-fighting tactics, is also in the race, and may start out in the lead. Lee and Holt are both populist hard core conservatives.

Prognosis Right now the race is in Lincoln's favor as she is perky and has tried to avoid controversy. However, this is definitely one to watch as a dark horse for upset of the year.

South Dakota: Tom Daschle

Republican Former Rep. John Thune, the 2002 senate nominee who lost by 500 votes, has zeroed in on Daschle's seat. Thune is still very popular and delayed his campaign announcement to give the good people of South Dakota a rest from politics.

Prognosis Thune is the strongest candidate Republicans could put forward and could send Daschle to retirement, McGovern-style. Daschle leads Thune 48-45 in current polling (Rasmussen). Daschle's repeated attacks on President Bush haven't helped him any. Once this campaign gets going, it's going to be intense and hard-hitting.

California: Barbara Boxer

Republican The nominee is former Cali Sec State Bill Jones, who posted a strong victory in the primary over former US Treasurer Rosario Marin and former assemblyman Howard Kaloogian. Jones was twice elected statewide before losing the gubernatorial primary to Dick Riordan and Bill Simon in 2002. He is fairly well-like by the large portion of the electorate who know of him and disliked by no one, precisely the sort of respected, optimistic candidate who would be resistant to Boxer's vicious attacks and provide a positive and palatable alternative for swing voters.

Prognosis It remains to be seen how well Jones will reconnect with the electorate in his first federal race. He has an uphill race ahead of him, and will need to run a strong, mistake-free campaign to pull off the upset.

Washington: Patty "Osama" Murray

Opponent US Rep. George Nethercutt, 58, has the potential to run an effective, on-message campaign as he did in defeating House Speaker Tom Foley in 1994. Of course, he defeated Foley on a message of term limits and then reneged on his own term limits promise. Brilliant. He is also from eastern (rural) Washington, which could be a handicap when building name recognition with Seattle-area voters. Nethercutt's message this year? Terrorism and health care, two issues where Murray is very weak.

Prognosis Nethercutt will have a fighting chance of defeating Murray in 2004, and that may be all he needs. For now the race is Murray's to lose.

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold

Republican There are three main candidates for the nomination. The first is state senator Robert Welch, a little albino who lost to popular Senator Herb Kohl in '96; the general sense is that he is an underwhelming candidate with poor campaign skills. Still, he's made allies around the state and garnered several endorsements, including the NRA. Two millionaire candidates round out the primary field: honest and respected car dealer Russ Darrow and veteran and businessman Tim Michels. Michels would be the strongest general election candidate by far, and would have added credibility when criticizing Feingold on national security matters. Even though Darrow is a good guy, car dealers don't have the best reputation as a group, which makes him a poorer challenger to a supposed idealist like Feingold than otherwise. Plus, he donated to Feingold's re-election campaign, not the smartest thing to do for a future opponent.

Prognosis This race will be a tossup if Republicans nominate Michels. Wisconsin is drifting Republican at every level, as seen in the takeover of the state legislature by Republicans in 2002 and Bush's narrow loss in 2000. Feingold won by a few thousand votes over Rep. Mark Neumann in 98 and could face a similar race in 2004.

Republican Seats

Oklahoma: Don Nickles

Republican US Rep Ernest Istook made a surprising announcement, taking himself out of the running for the Republican nomination, though he left the door open to jump back in later. Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys is running, and has the support of Senator Inhofe and practically the entire state Republican establishment, including J.C. Watts. State senator Mike Fair will provide some primary competition, as will state (elected) Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony. Former US Rep Dr. Tom Coburn joined the race on March 1st and his immense popularity with grassroots Republicans combined with crossover appeal make him the only real challenger to Humphreys. Coburn may even be the favorite at this point, although he may be hurt by getting in the race so late.

Democrat Somewhat moderate US Rep Brad Carson is billed as the Democrats' best hope for this seat, but he faces a primary with, among others, corrupt state Insurance Commissioner Carroll Fisher. Carson is well ahead of the field in fundraising, with over $1 million cash on hand.

Prognosis Humphreys is a decent candidate but a little lacking in pizzazz, and may make this race closer than it really should be. If Tom Coburn is the GOP nominee this race is over, he wins hands down.

Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter

Specter Specter has by turns exasperated and mollified conservative and mainstream Republicans with his socially liberal positions. He has been a loyal soldier in the senate of late, however, and can usually be counted upon to confirm Bush judges. He seems to believe the American people need an expert in Scottish Law in the US Senate.

Opponent Philadelphia-area US Rep. Joe Hoeffel is running, with support from the Democrat establishment. He has significant weakness running statewide, and would get stomped by Specter. If Toomey wins the primary, however, donations to Hoeffel will start pouring in.
Prognosis Specter won't have much trouble keeping this seat if he survives the primary. With Toomey, it's a tossup; moderate Republicans are likely to be miffed that their man was beaten. However, at this stage it does not look like Toomey will pull off the upset in the primary.

Colorado: OPEN (Ben Nighthorse Campbell)

Illinois: Peter Fitzgerald

Republican The frontrunner is investment banker-turned-teacher Jack Ryan, a young, pro-life JFK clone, who has generated immense grassroots interest and maintains a solid lead in the polls. Paper company prez Andy McKenna, who was considering a primary challenge to Fitzgerald and is generally supported by the Hastert-Lahood wing of the Illinois GOP, has drawn support as a solid though unexciting conservative. Respected state Senator Steve Rauschenberger, a conservative notable for his legislative work on fiscal matters, has won endorsements from fellow legislators and some influential newspapers, most notably the Illinois Leader, but trails badly in fundraising and in the polls. The wild card in the race is milkman Taliban Jim Oberweis, who lost a bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2002 and claims to be pro-life, though he has previously compared pro-lifers to the Taliban. Oberweis has seized on the immigration issue to coopt conservative support, but one wonders if his sudden and newfound interest in the subject will be entirely convincing. After a burst of attention, voters seem to be wising up to Taliban Jim and his support has faded. Major General John L. Borling is a contender, but his kooky positions in favor of a draft and abortion (pro-) severely limit his appeal. State Rep. Jonathan Wright has attracted some notice in conservative circles but is still largely unknown.

Democrat Megamillionaire Blair Hull has gone a long way toward buying this seat, but a history of divorces, including verbal and physical abuse, has derailed what was looking to be a solid primary win. State Senator Barack Obama is beginning to lock in the black vote, which could carry him to a finish of 30% and the nomination, depending on turnout. Controller and daddy's boy Dan Hynes has lost considerable support to Hull but may win some back. Also pulling significant votes are Gerry Chico and Maria Pappas, though neither will win the primary.
Prognosis Jack Ryan will win the Republican nomination, but the Democrat nomination will be a tight finish between damaged frontrunner Blair Hull, Obama, and Hynes, who I think will prove resilient and pick off some of Hull's support. The primary is March 16th.

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski

Kentucky: Jim Bunning

Missouri: Christopher "Kit" Bond

Opponent Missouri Democrats have been weakened and are concentrating on holding the governor's race. They'll field a candidate in state treasurer Nancy Farmer, but won't be able to give her the support needed to upset this entrenched incumbent.

Prognosis Bond will essentially get a pass this time around, though he still may not run up the margin too much. Strongly lean GOP.

Hawaii: Daniel Inouye

Republican Does it really matter? Okay, so Republicans want to continue their momentum after electing Linda Lingle to the governorship. But fielding even a credible candidate against Inouye will be a struggle.
Prognosis Inouye's running, and barring health problems he wins in a walk. Republicans have very little chance to win in this state, even in an open race. A side note is that Republican Linda Lingle is now Governor of Hawaii. Please excuse me for being a bit morbid, but if Inouye were to run again and then pass away -- or become too sick to carry out his duties -- Lingle would get to name his replacement.

Oregon: Ron Wyden

New York: Chuck "Strom" Schumer

Prognosis Schumer wins unless he makes some big mistakes.

North Dakota: Byron Dorgan

Vermont: Pat Leahy

Indiana: Evan Bayh

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski

Connecticut: Chris Dodd

Ohio: George Voinovich

Prognosis An October poll showed Voinovich leading Fingerhut 63% to 30%. Leans strongly GOP.

Iowa: Chuck Grassley

Kansas: Sam Brownback

Arizona: John McCain

Utah: Robert Bennett

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg

Alabama: Richard Shelby

Idaho: Mike Crapo