Law of Total Tricks
The Law of Total Tricks is widely used today by good players (like us) to determine how high to bid in competitive
auctions - those where the high card strength is divided approximately equally between the 2 pairs. In order to
use this principle, you have to guess how many cards each pair has in their best suit. Then you add these 2 numbers,
and that is the total number of tricks available in the hand. Let's say that from the bidding you have an 8-card
fit and they probably also have an 8-card fit. That means there are 16 total tricks in the hand. Now for the tricky
part. The Law says that if you can make 8 tricks playing in your suit, they can also make 8 playing in their suit
(8 plus 8 = 16). But if you can make 9 tricks, they can make only 7 (9 + 7 = 16).
Many people use the Law to compete to the 3 level if they have a 9-card fit, but not to bid to the 3 level with
an 8-card fit. This is a mis-application of the Law, and is nearly always wrong. Let's look at a very common example.
You hold a typical opening hand and open 1H. Then the bidding goes:
N E S W 1H 1S 2H` 2S ?
It looks very much like both sides have an 8-card fit, for a total of 16 tricks
in the hand. If you pass, you are guaranteed (by the Law) of being beaten by every pair who "breaks the Law"
and bids 3H. Why? If they make 2S(-110 for you), then you can make 8 tricks at 3H for down 1(-50 or -100). If they
can only make 7 tricks at 2S(+50 or +100 for you), you can make 9 tricks at 3H(+140 for you). If they can make
9 tricks at 2S(-110 for you), you will be down 2 at 3H (-100 or -200). So there is a risk when vulnerable. If not
vulnerable, going to 3H will always (if the Law holds) be correct. If vulnerable, going to 3H will give a good
result in 2 cases out of 3 - these are good odds. Note that really good players sitting EW here will realize that
they are going to get a bad result when you bid 3H, and they may double to improve their chance of getting a good
result - on the theory that if you make 3H doubled they go from a bad result to a bottom, and they will beat all
EW pairs which don't double and 3H goes down.
Read about "The Law" in To Bid or Not to Bid and Following the Law by Larry Cohen.
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