We will never learn. History has a striking tendency to repeat itself over and over in regular cycles. While the details are never the same, the over-all rhythms of social and national events recycle themselves in a pattern as predictable as the seasons.
Though the methods used to determine these cycles are open to different interpretations by social historians, a clear pattern emerges from the underlying forces showing eerie parallels to what we witnessed 70 years ago.
All indications say the situation in Russia will get worse before it gets better, at least to any significant degree. The current and ongoing chaos is certain to result in a tired people yearning for a new purpose and dictator-style nationalism in the coming years. Like 1920's Germany, it wishes to regain power and influence in global theater. This would create a new paradigm in global power structure and initiate a possible historically unprecedented global crisis. Should a situation emerge, it will be in conjunction with India, China, among others.
Russia also faces a loss of borders with native Russians forced to be ethnic foreigners in Ex-Soviet satelites led by incompetent leaders. With the recent crisis in Kosovo, an intense opposition to NATO and the U.S. has arisen. Since the end of the Cold War, Western policy toward Russia has been a textbook case on how to drive a people to fascism. Almost everything we've done to Russia repeats what the foolish Western Allies did to Germany after WWI. That, plus the depression, put Hitler in power. Below are some chilling parallels between the two nations and demonstrates what may lie ahead:
1990's Russia Follows 1920's Germany
From around the 1870's-on, Germany felt the over-whelming "need" to keep its military modern and powerful due to insecurity and potential challenge from its European neighbors. While a relatively peaceful time, the tensions mounted, which ultimately led to the Great War known as WWI. Germany suffered a bitter defeat without really losing the battle; it was an unfinished war. It lost its status as a great power and was forced to succumb to the punishing Versailles Treaty
Woodrow Wilson told the Germans in 1918 it wasn't the people he detested--it was their system. He also promised it would be a just peace. Under the resulting peace agreement, Germany lost land to Poland and millions of Germans suddenly bacame ethnic minorities in badly-run countries where they were scond-class citizens.
A country in shambles and without national purpose, Germany entered the depression in the 1930's. Fed-up with the Weimar Republic, it voted Hitler into power. Under a massive military build up and strongly recovering economy, Germany was once again a power-house, and proud of it. It became, once again, a rejuvinated, conquering empire dwarfing the might of the allies it had lost to some two decades previous. We all know what happened next.
1990's RUSSIA
Since the 1950's, the Soviet Union felt the "need" to build up its military as a challenge from the United States. This Cold war too was a relatively peaceful time, even while tensions remained high. It eventually "lost" this war by dissolving in 1991. But like Germany in 1919, it was an unfinished war.
We said to the Russians exactly what Wilson said about Germany: We don't have a problem with the Russian people, we just detested the Soviet system. We said the transition to a democratic, market economy would be best. After the hyper-inflation of the early 1990's, market reforms were attempted. The reult was a near total economic collapse in 1998 to which they've been unable to pull out of. Living standards dropped, criminals flourished, and honest people starved.
Russia's gross national product is now close to five percent of the United States' GNP and going backward. it is in a meltdown situation
Who do they blame for their troubles? The U.S., Westerners and the free market reforms it imposed.
As shown in Global Realignment , as well as the ominous approach and breakdown y2k will bring, they will certainly join in an alliance with China as the Conflict in Kosovo was the trigger for a strategic Global realignment. Seeing how these patterns are unfolding, the ultimate result, at least in the coming 25 years, may very well be World War Three.
In the visions that I, Daniel, have seen, they are to play a major role in this war, due to their nuclear stockpile and the alliances that have been, and are soon to be formed.