OSAMA BIN LADEN:A Scorecard

COLUMN READING:

What were the two things that bin Laden wanted to achieve? To begin with, he wanted the Americans to share the Muslim experience of living in a perpetual state of fear. Secondly, he wanted to convince the Muslim heart, if not the Muslim mind, that the two great religions were at war.

Where others have been failing for half a century, Osama has managed to achieve in a mere two weeks (since the Americans started bombing his hideouts and innocent Afghans got killed along the way). Muslims around the world - whether in Palestine, Kashmir, the Arab world, Asia or Africa - have long lived in ceaseless fear either of their heartless neighbours or of their own, often American-supported, autocratic regimes. In that sense, the world is now more equal than ever. America is going to be more like any other third world country and Americans shall now find out what's it like to live under third world regimes. Restricted civil liberties, constant harassment by law enforcers, frequent audits of private body parts by airport security agencies plus an endless fear of the unknown (whether its anthrax, small pox or bio-terrorism in the case of the US).

To be certain, Osama is now over-stretching the legendary Afghan hospitality. He can be an even bigger hero by surrendering to a third country. I somehow feel that whatever evidence the Americans have against Osama is not going to stand up in a neutral court of law. To the American leadership he would be worth a hundred times more dead than alive.

I was inspired by Khaled Ahmed's "Split down the middle". No one could have put it better. "The mind prefers a deal benefiting Pakistan financially. The heart wants to challenge America and defend Osama bin Laden."

The Muslim mind continues to argue that America has actually been a victim of its own success, financial, political and social. What America had was wanted by Muslims for their own countries. This is where the great contradiction between the heart and the mind comes in. We cannot, after all, blame all our failures on to others. The first prerequisite to reforming ourselves is owning to our weaknesses, and there are many. There should be recognition that extremist forces have hijacked Islam. We as Muslims do not need terrorism to win. There is very little common between a billion Muslims and a few thousand Taliban.

Osama has already won (may be not the person but the phenomenon that he represents). Americans are yet to achieve anything substantial. The CIA is learning that money continues to be in short supply in most of Afghanistan. As a consequence, there is nothing in that country that money cannot buy. Odds are that sooner rather than later American military efforts will bear some fruit albeit a petty return on their $40 billion investment.

What's next for Afghanistan? The Americans started out with a seven-pronged attack. First, B-2 "stealth" bombers launched from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Second, B-1 Lancers and B-52 Stratofortresses from Diego Garcia Air Base. Third, F-14 Tomcats and F-18 Hornets from aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea. Fourth, Tomahawk missiles from British and US submarines and ships. Fifth, accumulating Rupees and Afghanis from the kerb market to buy loyalties of anti-Taliban elements. Sixth, bombing the front-line Taliban in Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul and Herat so that the Northern Alliance could take control of those cities. Seventh, supporting Dr Abdullah in the south to put pressure on the Taliban in Kandahar.

Once Mazar-i-Sharif falls, Uzbekistan is going to breathe a little easy and allied forces can use it as a launching pad for its special operation forces (shortening the turn-around time). They will then divide up Kandahar into small patches for perpetual monitoring by AFACs (Airborne Fort Air Controllers) to look for tanks, troops and trucks to be locked-in by air-to-ground infrared heat-seeking Maverick missiles. EC-130s, the psychological operations aircraft, are already conducting missions and so unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) equipped with Hellfire anti-tank missiles.

Reaching Osama in Kandahar appears to be a three-pronged strategy. First, Pave Hawk helicopters either from Termez or Pasni. Second, C-130s to bring special operation forces directly onto ground. Third, USS Kitty Hawk (that has been stripped of most of her aircraft) to be used as a special operation launch platform.

The entire Afghan economy is worth no more than $4 billion while the US Congress has already given Bush a $40 billion war-chest. General Myers claimed the other day that they have "achieved air-supremacy". He fools no one but 278 million Americans. Get just two F-16 Fighting Falcons from No 11 Squadron (MM Alam belonged to this squadron) of PAF and the two will achieve air-supremacy in about half the time that a Stealth takes to reach Afghanistan.

To begin with, Afghanistan did not have a single target worth more than a Tomahawk (average unit cost: $1.4 million). By the third day of high-altitude bombing the Americans had run out of what they called "fixed targets". They have since been looking for "emerging targets". After a full week of bombing, visiting and re-visiting the same sites, AC-130 low-flying gunships were introduced. These Vietnam-tested killers with side-firing weapons, 40mm and 105mm cannons and 25mm guns fire 1,800 rounds a minute dumping more lead onto the Afghan rubble than the entire Afghani population could produce in a month.

During the second week of bombing, at least three changes came about within the Muslim world. First, Iran agreed to help American troops in trouble. Second, Bahrain's Emir Sheik Isa Al Khalifa said that Bahrain should consider inducting Bahraini troops if requested. Third, assault missions, led by AC-130s, began taking off from Oman.

Over the past week, the momentum at the UN has picked up pace. The Secretary-General appointed Lakhdar Brahimi (a former Algerian foreign minister) as his Special Representative for Afghanistan. Richard Haass is the State Department's special coordinator for Afghanistan. Then there is Frncesc Vendrell, the Secretary-General's Personal Representative for Afghanistan. There is talk of an UN-sponsored, armed peacekeeping force.

Muslim countries, especially Turkey, could play an important role (India also wants to get in on behalf of the Northern Alliance). The Afghans, proud as they are of their heritage, may not like taking orders from foreign soldiers. That is where Zahir Shah and the Loya Jirga (Loya: great; Jirga: council) come in.

In this region, Loya Jirgas have a record of achieving wonders since Emperor Kanishka, some 2,500 years ago, till the time of President Daoud in 1976. Kanishka convened a Loya Jirga to reform the Buddhist religion. Genghis Khan convened one (his was called Qurlatai). The composition of the Afghan population is Pashtun 38%, Tajik 25%, Hazara 19%, Aimaks, Turkmen, Baloch, and others 12% and Uzbek 6%. Any future government must therefore be pluralistic but Pashtun dominated.

To be sure, Osama is not the only winner in this game of "dead or alive".

The person who has managed to save Pakistan - but had to become the West's new darling in the process - is President General Musharraf. The question here is as to how long would this honeymoon last

The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.