From NCEP's short range forecast discussion:
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CANADA. A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF REGION.
KOSIER

From Midland/Odessa, TX NWS:
EXCITING DAY IN STORE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS... WINDY WEST... HIGH FIRE DANGER... SEVERE WEATHER NORTHEAST. SET RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT MIDLAND... MAY SET ANOTHER ONE TODAY.
72

From Pueblo, CO NWS:
TODAY...SPC HAS MODERATE RISK OVER FAR SE PLAINS WITH SLIGHT OVER REST OF PLAINS. 06Z PROBABILITY TOR CHART HAS GREATER THAN 15% CONTOUR OVER GOOD CHUNK OF PLAINS WITH SIG TOR INDICATED OVER FAR SE....I CANNOT ARGUE WITH SPC REASONING. IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AND MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE. CAPES ON THE SURFACE DONT SEEM ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT LOCAL STUDIES SHOW OUR BEST SUPERCELL TORS DEVELOP WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG (I.E. ELLICOTT EVENT - STUDY IS ON PUB SVR WX HOMEPAGE)....AND TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/50S.
MOORE

From Shreveport, LA NWS:
THE CONVECTIVE STORM MATRIX RELOADED. THE HOPED FOR QUIET DAY MATERIALIZED TODAY AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS LEFT THE SOUTH AROUND 930 AM. SEVERE WEATHER BONANZA DEVELOPING BETWEEN DEN AND LBB TONIGHT AS STRONG ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHARPENING A DRYLINE THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
17

From Grand Rapids, MI NWS:
IT MAY BE WETTER THAN I THOUGH TODAY...TO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR US TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...SORRY!
WDM

From Phoenix, AZ NWS:
HGTS SHD START TO RISE STEADILY THROUGH SATURDAY AS BROAD...FLAT RDG BUILDS. NEXT WEEKS W CST TROF...PROGGED TO LONG LIVED AND SLO TO MOVE...MAY OPEN MSTR OPPORTUNITIES...A PATTERN NOT SEEN MUCH THIS SPRING TO SUMMER SEASON...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL...LET ALONE ACTUALLY PUT IN THE FORECAST.
RUNYAN
More overheard by clicking here.

For nearly 4 years, I've had this weather site devoted to the local conditions in the Asheville area. The reason of course, was because I came to school in western North Carolina and wanted to continue to track the weather patterns. Through the early days of the page, there were much different formats than what is seen in 2003. Originally, it was a part of the mrs weather label and carried current conditions and forecasts for several cities across the region. Soon webcams, polls, and even more local observations were added as the star remained the weather in Asheville. I've done special features, made special webpages for significant weather events in the area and as my meteorological knowledge grew, so did the style and format of the page which was always found at www.angelfire.com/ga/mrsweather/avlweather.html. By 2002, inside weather came about which not only incorporated the local weather but served as kind of a three-times a week magazine website for weather going on across the country. Through it all, constants such as the time and temperature bug, current conditions, and the forecast remained. Those were important features of the page especially given some of the most memorable weather events to occur in the Asheville area while I was here these last almost 4 years. Here's a few of the big ones that come to mind:

Hurricane Floyd- September 15-16, 1999
Was a major news story in the middle part of September. I remember watching it on FOX News, that being the top story for at least a couple of days and them talking nonstop on it. No surprise because of the massive size of the storm that was just a hundred or so miles off shore. Massive in size and in strength, we're talking category 4 here and the hurricane was threatening areas from Florida on up the entire East Coast. This one was much more stronger than Hurricane Dennis which peaked out at category 2 strength just a couple of weeks earlier. Still in drought here in Asheville, we didn't get any rain from that system. And as it turned out, Floyd eventually weakened as it moved north toward the North Carolina coast and came in at a much weakened state and due to it being so far from us here, we didn't see any rain but the winds were rather strong. Winds were sustained as high as 45 mph and gusted as high as 54 mph at the airport. Wasn't directly due to the circulation itself, but there was also a strong high pressure system over the Ohio Valley and the tight gradient between that and the hurricane helped drive those strong winds here. What I remember most were the evacuees that made a mass exodus from the coast and how hectic that all was. It was the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history and we were apart of that. People from the coast came to Asheville and flooded all of the hotel rooms and here at UNCA which served as a hurricane shelter. Those that didn't get rooms here had to go all the way to Knoxville to find empty rooms. Quite a storm for the coast where they got slammed with catastrophic flooding but here, it was unseasonably cool and windy for a couple of days. Floyd also came a day after my 18th birthday.

Snow after snow, after ice storm after snow- January 16-31, 2000

That 15 day period in late January was perhaps the most winter weather events in rapid succession than I had ever experienced in my life. Living in the South, you don't usually see snow after snow after snow consecutively like that. But during those 2 weeks, we had 5 events that were seemingly coming every other day. The pattern was one of very cold temperatures with a deep trough over the East Coast which sent a plunge of Arctic air deep into the south and at the same time, low pressure areas forming and tracking across the Gulf into the Atlantic and up the coast bringing the moisture in and the inclement weather. Oh but it was very very cold even when it wasn't snowing or icing. There was a period we went over 3 days without getting above freezing and with winds gusting up to 53 mph, I finally experienced what I had never have before, a cold mountain winter. And even more remarkable were the snows. The biggest accumulation was 4.5 inches on the 22nd from snow that lasted all that Saturday. I had forecasted it days in advance and I'll never forget those forecasts around then having snow in there almost every day. Never did that before. And of course, those snow events were the first to get me tracking storms almost snowflake by snowflake on the website providing the most up to date information. You would have seen me in the computer lab putting in 12 hour days nonstop. Wasn't a problem for me, adrenoline kept me going. While we got snow in that storm, at home in Atlanta they suffered the worst ice storm in almost 20 years. And that snow stuck around too. Never have seen snow stick around for longer than a week but that snow stayed for a good 3 or 4 weeks due to the cold! The next weekend, we'd get that ice storm and with perhaps the worst conditions I've ever experienced here, we had a sleet storm all day that Saturday before changing to freezing rain and I found that sleet actually sticks, doesn't just bounce. So everyone was walking like a penguin because the maintenence crew on campus has the weekends off. About every fourth step, I'd slip and fall, it was nasty! Worst ice storm I have ever been in. I tracked it of course in the computer lab and once I got in there that evening, I stayed because I did not want to go back out and walk back to my room with all that ice on the ground. Eventually by like 5 the next morning, I did leave the computer lab as most of the precipitation was tapering off and yes, more slipping and sliding as that sleet on the ground was glazed over by the freezing rain. And again, at home, they had another ice storm from the same storm for the second consecutive weekend which was a rarity for them. So through that period, Asheville talleyed 6.2 inches of snow with a lot of traces in that from northwest flow snow events which I was introduced to those 2 weeks. We got around an inch or two from each of those, considerably less at the airport due to its location further south. That was another thing I learned about as to snow distribution in those situations across the area.

.00" of Rain in October 2000- October 2000

So I'm thinking, what is this, Arizona? Will tumbleweed start crossing the walkways. With the main branch of the jet stream essentially staying to our north all month long and a continued drought due in part to a La Nina pattern, October 2000 was the driest month in the history of Asheville. Not hard to do if you don't measure any rainfall. Nothing fell. Not even a trace! There hadn't been measurable rain since September 25 and the last trace was September 30. An interesting part of life at UNCA is chalk art on the sidewalks. Well just imagine some of the out of date appointments and interesting comments and artwork that remained on the grounds during that month. One such thing was a gay pride flag drawn on the steps. Usually, once rain would come, it would wash out. Nope, all month gay pride rang as the flag stood the test of the climate. You know, probably since I lived in Los Angeles have I ever experienced a month with no rain. Things just continued to dwindle as far as vegetation as we just couldn't get a break. The rains did come again, on November 4 with 0.28 inch. And ironically enough, that November had above normal precipitation.

A Cold November/December 2000- November/December 2000

It was the coldest two month period in U.S. history and all of the time leading up to this was about how it was so hot and everything. Well nature has a way of balancing things out. Though I'm not totally ignoring global warming, but just as we can get hot, we can get very cold and it was quite chilly for those last 2 months of 2000. And with the cold, we had precipitation in the form of snow with 2 inches on November 19 and 3 inches on December 3 which started off the snow season on a good note. From what I remember, my forecasts were good on those snow events and the cold. While not eyepopping cold compared to January 2000 and 2003, for the time of the year, it was quite chilly as we had highs as low as the low 30s and lows as low as the upper teens. A deep trough was over the East and the cold air just kept pouring into the trough keeping it over this part of the country. By January though, the pattern changed and it turned above normal as far as temperatures.

First Day Of Spring Snowstorm- March 20, 2001

This is my crown jewel weather event out of the last four years. The one event that I'll always remember. The forecast was so consistent leading up to it. It was one of those forecasts where in your heart you knew it was going to happen but also in your mind, everything made sense and it would be silly not to forecast what would happen. And for the most part it worked out, except for some flys in the ointment commonly seen with early spring snow events. I had been hyping this storm up for a week and preprepared to make a special page for the storm, which I did. I tracked it all day too, all day coverage from 6am on, at my computer watching it as the snow came in from the south until it ended late that night. It was one of my first days in my new room as well as I had left my other room down the hall due to roommate situations. But this was the snowstorm and I made frequent forecast updates throughout the day. The storm was certainly worth it. What I remember early in the morning was how angry I was at area schools for not closing. Winter storm warnings were in effect, snow was on the radar solidly and moving our way, yet schools stayed open only to close as soon as the heavy snow started falling leaving lots of school buses in accidents and just a chaotic scene. What, they couldn't decipher a radar? Where were they getting their forecasts from? Anyway, enough of that, see I'm still hot about that 2 years after the fact. So it snowed and it was also a bit windy. Not as windy as first thought, in fact, I had wondered if a blizzard warning would be needed. Many areas around the mountains had near blizzard conditions though. Snow fell heavily and then when afternoon came, the fly in the ointment part of this started, rain began mixing with the snow and there was a battle between rain and snow for the good part of the afternoon. Apparently, the low responsible was so strong that it was pulling in warmer air at low levels from the Atlantic Ocean that helped the precipitation oscilliation. By evening though, it remained cold enough that it was all snow and falling heavily. I remember the steak dinner that night, seemed like a handsome reward for all that storm tracking. And now, it's something I crave after following every storm. Also, twizzlers became the new storm tracking food as I typed in one of my forecast updates during the day. In all, 6.1 inches of snow fell at the airport that day making it the most snow to fall in a day the entire time I've been here. 6-10 inches fell in the Asheville area with up to a foot and a half of snow fell on Mount Mitchell.

Isidore and the beginning of the end of the drought- September 25-27, 2002

For most of my time here in Asheville, we have been under drought conditions. A moderate to strong La Nina event had been in progress since the summer of 1998 which has kept us very dry in that time. Tropical systems for the most part avoided Asheville except Isidore. Usually in long term drought, promising heavy rains don't typically come but with this storm, I was banking on it to bring abundant tropical moisture into the Carolinas. And with the center of circulation passing just to our west over east central Tennessee, that rain came into the area dropping 0.97 inch on the 25th, 0.93 inch on the 26th, and 0.33 inch on the 27th. Rain had spread outward many miles on the 25th from Isidore so that's where that came from but the core of the storm came closer and the outer bands of the system was more responsible on the 26th and 27th. For those three days, we recieved 1.98 inches of rain in Asheville with some spots here getting up to 5 inches of rain. It was quite windy too as the storm made its closest approach with winds gusted as high as 35 mph. And with a pressure at its lowest at 29.60 inches on the 27th, there's no question why it was so gusty. I went out in it one night late and saw numerous branches down in the gusty, rainy night. And with this system, it helped bring us the first month in a year to have above normal precipitation. Following months saw near to above normal precipitation as well as the pattern shifted and El Nino set in.

Snow/Ice Storm of December 2002- December 4, 2002

It was the first major winter storm since late in the snow season in 2001. The winter of 2001-02 was warm and snowless for the most part, very depressing to someone like me who loves the snow. Originally with this storm, I had been saying that we'd see more ice than snow. Things didn't look cold enough at all levels for this to be a significant snow maker to me. But the timing was unusual for a big ice storm as it was early December still and the days leading up to it, weren't neccessarily very cold. The day started out with some snow, which I originally forecasted, and I thought it would be light and brief. 4 inches later, our most snow since March 20, 2001, it was a significant snow storm for the area, much to my surprise. But as expected during the afternoon, that snow changed over to briefly sleet and then all freezing rain. I had thought we would have seen more sleet but it didn't turn out that way. I was still kind of right in my more ice than snow prediction because we had more hours of ice than snow (~11 hours to ~7 hours) but this one will be remembered for one of the heaviest snows for so early in the winter and one of the heaviest snows I've seen here in Asheville. The freezing rain was heavier than what I had seen before here. They recorded .70 inch of water equivalent freezing rain at the airport and it helped to crust the snow and also felled trees and tree limbs. Very unsettling at night as I heard branch after branch fall with transformer flashes out over the city coming frequently. Even power flashes here on campus but we never lost power. I had never been through anything like that before, even in the freezing rain event in 2000, it wasn't this bad.

Arctic Blast!- January 15-27, 2003

It had been 3 years since the last cold spell this bad, but as I remember it, mid to late January 2003 was the coldest, most miserable weather I had ever been through. Not only was it just plain cold, but it was very windy and also snowy. Most memorable about that period was actually forecasting temperatures at or below 0 for the first time since I have been here. And here on campus we were close to 0 on a couple of occasions. With the polar vortex passing right almost on top of us, there was no doubting why it was so down right cold. We had highs into the mid 20s, coldest I've ever faced being here and lows into the single digits, also the coldest I've ever faced. It was especially cold for me because I went up to New York state and the cold was even worse up there! As I was going through Ohio one night, I heard on the radio temperatures below zero and I can't ever remember being somewhere when it was that cold. One day sticks out in my mind as the most miserable day here at UNC-Asheville. January 23, we had a high of 26, a low of 6, an inch of snow, and winds gusting as high as 53 mph. Wind chills down into the -20s, not a day to go out for man nor beast as they say. I was all bundled up and everything, still freezing cold though. I remember the snow falling in squalls and it being so cold that it was just caked to the ground. You couldn't scrape it up, everything was frozen solid. Afternoon temperatures stayed in the low to mid teens and I wrote in my forecast how that would be the coldest day we'd experience ever in Asheville for the year. That's certainly an understatement. I tried not to go outside at all and from what I remembered, we had the day off of school so all I had to go out for was for meals. I missed dinner and had to beg for a piece of someone's delivered pizza because I did not want to go out. Brrrrr, just thinking of that crappy day gets me cold.

Finally a February Snow- February 6-7, 2003

My forecast was on target and didn't waiver much three days before this snow happened. Yes, I knew Asheville's history with heavy snow events in February, and yes, the model guidence at the time was messed up badly, but with the intuition I had, the nowcasting skills and blending what little guidence that was helpful together, the forecast worked out almost exactly as planned. Snow throughout. There was debate whether we'd see freezing rain and sleet, but I held on and felt strongly that we'd stay all snow and that happened and we went on to the heaviest Feb. snowfall since 1983 at 3.7 inches storm total. Now it wasn't the biggest snowstorm obviously but for February it was particularly notable given that we hadn't really seen more than an inch in the month over the last several years.

Thunder and lightning and...snow?- March 30 & April 10, 2003

There's something about those early spring snows. Seems like there's more water in the snowflakes, hence more heavy wet snows. Also seems like, when it does snow, it accumulates much more rapidly in a short amount of time, hence convective snows. We saw that in March and April of this year. Reminded me of April of 2001 when we had the heavy wet snow on the 17th and how it fell hard at one instance, then stopped and the sun came out and melted it away, then snowed hard again and that cycle repeated itself. Same sort of idea this year, however the snow wasn't nearly as showery as it was in April 2001. On March 30, I awoke to a sight I probably wasn't entirely expecting as I saw the most beautiful snowflakes I have ever seen cascade down the atmosphere. Big, wet, silver dollar size snowflakes everywhere! Like many, I wasn't expecting it to be that heavy and we went on to record 2 inches for the day as it was falling at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour. Some spots got up to 10 inches from the surprise snowstorm. Surprise in the amount of snow that fell and not the actual snow falling. And if we thought that was strange, another late season snowstorm came in April. It was my final map discussion and I had the pleasure to forecast another snowstorm for the area. This one, I had a beat on as far as amounts and timing of the event. It started right around noon on the 10th in association with an upper low that parked right near us as disturbances rotated around the system sparking the precipitation. I knew as soon as the heaviest precipitation would fall, it would drag down enough cold air, a process known as dynamic cooling, and we'd get a burst of heavy, wet snow and it did. Now what I didn't bargain for was how heavy it actually did fall! With the cold air aloft, lots of instability led to convective falls of snow in that we had thundersnow for almost 2 hours where snow rates were 1-4 inches per hour here in Asheville. For once, we were ground zero for the heaviest snow as there wasn't too much at the time to the north or south of us. We were the story. It all fell in that burst, I haven't seen snow fall that heavy that fast since the snowstorm on Christmas Day 2002 in New York. Turned out to be the 2nd snowiest day in Asheville history with 4 inches of snow which also tied it for the most snow of the 2002-03 snow season. With the heavy wet snow, a bunch of tree limbs either came down or were bent down low. One tree near the caf suffered limb damage due to the weight of the snow and I thought it had been struck by lightning.

Severe weather hits mountains- May 2, 2003

Thunderstorms rumbled through the area in early May as the nation reported the most tornadoes to start a month in history. The effects felt here in Asheville were mainly from heavy rain induced flooding which brought rivers in the area way out of their banks and provided endless rain day after day from MCS's that would cross into the mountains. But there was one such squall line that moved through the mountains that brought severe weather to the area. The last 4 years, we really haven't seen much in the way of severe thunderstorms while I've been here. Usually, when a line of thunderstorms move through, they weaken as soon as they cross into North Carolina. That didn't happen this time. The storm moved down 40 on that Friday afternoon maintaining, if not gaining strength as it approached Asheville. Earlier in the afternoon, we took our meteorology class picture in the gorgeous sunshine and warm temperatures. Skies quickly darkened though and we were under a severe thunderstorm warning as the storm moved in. I watched from my room with my window to the west as the wave of rain and gusty wind moved in. At the airport, they reported something that usually doesn't get seen here...small hail. Winds gusted to 45 mph as well and there was wind damage across the Asheville area and some hail damage mostly hail the size of nickels and dimes. As the storms moved east, they provided a tornadic threat and there were even reports of funnel clouds in our area. This was our taste of the large severe weather outbreak of May 2003, the first time I've experienced severe weather of this magnitude my whole time here, coming in my final days.

Some meteorological notes since I've been in Asheville
Hottest Day: 95 degrees 8/14/99
Coldest Day: 5 degrees 1/24/03
Rainiest Day: 2.37 inches 2/22/03
Snowiest Day: 6.1 inches 3/20/01
Strongest Wind Gust: 54 mph 9/16/99
Highest Sea Level Pressure: 30.70 inches 1/14/00
Lowest Sea Level Pressure: 29.20 inches 2/22/03

My final word on weather in Asheville is unpredictable. Very unpredictable. This has got to be the worst place to forecast for. I was tearing my hair out the first couple of years trying to forecast here as things were just incredibly out of wack at times. By the spring of 2001 though, I was beging to get a beed on how to forecast here. This place will throw you for a loop many times. Some things I notice is that it gets very windy here at times. Before I came here, a high wind warning was a big thing to me, something I had only been in once (Hurricane Opal 1995). But we've had that countless times since I've been here that its old hat. The northwest flow snow is another thing. Probably not an easy concept to grasp. Getting snow in an NVA situation, cold air advection, and a northwest wind flow trajectory that is often uneven and bountiful on windward facing slopes leaving those in the lee wondering what all the fuss is about. But I loved those northwest flow snows, they were so light and fluffy and came in waves, or showers and squalls. We never got more than 3 inches out of one of those events, as they are good for dusting the ground with a fresh coating which provided a nuisance for anyone who had to go out in that. Also, low temperatures here are a lot lower than they may appear. Grasping that helped with the frustration of forecasting here. Fog didn't seem to be as big as an issue as I thought it would be coming in. I thought they had a lot more foggy days than occured. Also, ice wasn't as big as I thought it would be. It could ice all day and not cause problems but if it ices a little bit further down in elevation, they lose power for weeks. Never quite understood that. This is the place where squall lines die as seen by a number of those that looked impressive in east Tennessee only to find a place to dwindle here. And it never seems to be totally cloudy in a day, the sun always finds a seam in the clouds. When it does snow here, it sticks and in a hurry. And it doesn't matter if it was 80 degrees the day before because if it snows hard enough, long enough, its going to stick and I was real impressed by that. If there's one thing I wish for weatherwise while being here is that I wish we could have had a winter like this winter for the previous 3. I wish many of my forecasts would have worked out because they made sense.

Here though, really nothing makes sense especially in winter, as far as forecasting. It's as big of a crap shoot as any tha a forecaster will ever find due in large part to the unique topography here. But it has been a blast, I'm glad I was able to forecast and follow the weather here the past four years. I'll continue following it on my next stop, wherever that may be and I hope you keep tuned into inside weather for more. To all that have followed me and this page for the last 4 years, thank you, you're the reason why I spend 4 hours every Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday, and during storm situations, updating this site. While I won't forecast for Asheville anymore, the links will stay up for as long as this webspace is available and I hope you will keep tuned in. See you down the road!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003
 
...RECORD OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES FOR OUR REGION...

AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES ON SUNDAY MAY 4, 2003 AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY 
MAY 6, 2003 YIELDED A TOTAL OF 33 TORNADOES FOR THE 58 COUNTY AREA 
SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN PADUCAH.  THIS 
OUTBREAK ALONE TIES THE GREATEST NUMBER OF TORNADOES EVER RECORDED 
IN AN ENTIRE ONE YEAR PERIOD FOR OUR REGION.  

IN 1957, OUR 58 COUNTY REGION WAS ALSO BARRAGED BY 33 TORNADOES 
INCLUDING AN F4 TORNADO THAT MOVED INTO CARTER COUNTY MISSOURI ON 
MAY 21.  AGAIN IN 1989 OUR REGION RECORDED A TOTAL OF 33 TORNADOES.  
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 4 ADDITIONAL TORNADOES THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS 
YEAR, THE PRELIMINARY TOTAL FOR 2003 NOW STANDS AT 37.  THIS MAKES 
THIS THE GREATEST NUMBER OF TORNADOES IN ANY YEAR SINCE 1950.  BELOW 
ARE THE TOP 5 YEARS AND ASSOCIATED NUMBER OF TORNADOES.  THE 10 YEAR 
ANNUAL AVERAGE FOR OUR REGION IS APPROXIMATELY 18. 


YEAR        TORNADOES      
----        ---------

2003        37

1957        33

1989        33

1973        32 

2002        25 

Thanks to the Paducah, KY NWS for this one. What a year for tornadoes in western Kentucky as well as the rest of the countries. More tornadoes last week in that region than they usually get all year! Making that top 10 list for tornadoes was last year so its been an active 2 years severe weather wise in the region. With 37 tornadoes, that's more than double the average amount in a year. One of the tornadoes from the May 6th outbreak was rated an F4 in extreme Southern Illinois and was 2/3rds of a mile wide with a path length of 33 miles. Unfortunately, 2 people were killed in that tornado with homes heavily damaged or completely destroyed and mobile homes disintegrated.
More facts of the day by clicking here.

line of the day

METAR KLBL 160035Z AUTO 27040G62KT 1/2SM TS BKN003 OVC016 17/16 A2961 RMK AO1 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB32

That station is Liberal, KS from the 7:35pm CDT METAR report. The southwest Kansas region was within a high risk for severe thunderstorms and there was a particularly dangerous situation tornado watch issued for the area. Supercell thunderstorms were developing in an area of moisture convergence ahead of a strong upper low. Outflow from the storms have produced very strong winds. So deciphering the report, winds were out of the west at 46 mph, gusting to 71 mph with a half mile visibility, and a thunderstorm occuring. Due to this site being automated, they can't detect precipitation fall but inferring that the visibility was that low, heavy rain was occuring. There was a broken cloud deck at 300 feet and an overcast ceiling of 1600 feet. The temperature was 63 degrees with a dewpoint of 60 degrees. Pressure was at 29.61 inches and rose .04 inch in the last 20 minutes as the meso high developed in association with the strong winds as seen in that 71 mph wind gust. Lightning was distant in all quadrants and the thunderstorm began at 7:32pm. The wind their veered 180 degrees from the last observation 20 minutes previous suggesting that the storm was perhaps passing to the north and east of the airport and that they were in its rear which probably explains the 71 mph wind gust in the rear flank downdraft location of the storm.
More line of the day by clicking here.

sounding of the day

This sounding is from Wilmington, OH from 7am CDT. An upper low was right over the Great Lakes today and the differential heating with temperatures at 500mb on this sounding at around -15, -16 degrees C with temperatures at the surface around 20 degrees C, clouds formed and showers and thunderstorms developed. Main threat in those storms was the large hail due to low wet bulb zero levels at 739mb on this sounding and that's what was seen from Ohio south and eastward with the thunderstorms. Winds were fairly unidirectional just above the surface to above 400 mb and not really that strong. Wilmington was on the south side of the upper low.

records keep falling...With an upper ridge over west Texas and continued warm, dry air advection and plenty of sunshine, Midland, TX warmed to their 2nd record high in as many days:

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLANDODESSA TX
425 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE EQUALED AT MIDLAND...

AT 426 PM CDT THE TEMPERATURE AT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHED 103 DEGREES.  THIS TEMPERATURE EQUALS THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE.  THE RECORD WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN 
1996. 

For more info on which records fell, check out Recent Record Reports

inside weather: the chase

shreveport, la doppler radar

the weather chase is on on friday for the ark-la-tex region where a portion of the area is under a moderate risk of severe weather. a strong area of low pressure with an associated front will move east into the area and with strong warm, moist air advection and an upper level low also approaching from the west, there's a good likelihood of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind, and strong tornadoes possible given the amount of speed and directional shear that is forecast to be present especially late in the afternoon and friday evening. on location: tyler, tx texarkana, ar de queen, ar noaa picture of the daycurrent moon phase

inside weather: behind the forecast and the model futurecast

models of choice: ruc/eta/gfs well, the showers and thunderstorms are dwindling in numbers and intensity over western north carolina. that severe thunderstorm watch that was in effect until 10pm will expire quietly. earlier storms were leaving behind outflow boundaries as they die off and along those during the day tomorrow, we can see a refire of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. but for tonight, expect clouds and with any breaks, some patchy fog to be around. fog could be locally dense toward morning. it's going to be a muggy night with lows in the mid 50s. tomorrow, we have a very weak cold front that was this evening along the ohio river. that should sag south with little fanfare for tomorrow and along that front whereever it may lay there'll be enough lift for more showers and thunderstorms. most likely that will be towards the southern mountains with partly cloudy skies otherwise. warmer temperatures tomorrow with more warm air advection at low levels as we get into the mid to upper 70s. the front will turn into a warm front tomorrow and hang out in the southern appalachians through the weekend. what that means is the chance for showers and thunderstorms to be with us especially each afternoon. though high pressure in the northeast will be strengthening and providing a wedge down the slopes of the mountains so temperatures are going to cool down, especially for sunday. highs saturday will be in the mid 70s with mainly afternoon thunderstorms, some could be severe with damaging wind/large hail threat as we have the boundary and effects from an upper low moving to our south but by sunday, as the wedge takes hold and more of a showery pattern develops due to more stable conditions, highs will probably not get out of the 60s. wedge continues into the first part of next week but the parent high begins weakening and moving east into the atlantic as a strong trough propogates eastward across the midwest. so with more clouds than sun monday we'll have highs near 70 and warmer into the low to mid 70s for tuesday. cold front looks to come through wednesday with a squall line of showers and thunderstorms, with perhaps some severe weather possible. high pressure builds in behind that and the weather cools off as we head into the memorial day weekend. wanna look at other forecasts, check these out lamps data for asheville asheville nws forecast asheville twc forecast asheville accuweather forecast avl taf forecast asheville weatherpages forecast 6-10 day forecast 8-14 day forecast forecast model guidence mm5 forecast maps for avl area

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