VERTICAL ESCALATION IN SOUTH ASIA

FOCUS ARCHIVE:

With no signs of diffusing tensions, Indian acts of massing troops along the border are now being augmented by missile tests...

Orissa,IN.

The recent Agni missile test by India, which flew from the Wheeler Island, off the coast of Orissa, arced over a history between India and Pakistan that is fraught with antagonism, burdened by perpetual apprehensions and mistrust and underlined the skewed relationship that has brought both India and Pakistan perilously close to an apocalyptic scenario of a nuclear holocaust. Although the range of the missile was more than 1,250 miles, its implications and surreptitious intentions stretched even farther.

At a time when more than a million troops are stationed at the borders between India and Pakistan with their fingers on the barrel, jingoistic proclamations echoing with dangerous proportions and the efforts towards mellowing down of the tensions have fizzled down with one happening or the other, the timing of the test, though announced earlier, was in fact a signal to the international community of a changed Indian stance. Exasperated by the image of a soft stage, which cowers down at the last moment, the Indian establishment has decided to vehemently pursue with its coercive diplomacy and forward thrust military posturing to achieve political ends.

Seizing the moment when the whole international community has scoffed and scorned at international terrorism (though ironically never being able to come to a mutually acceptable, all encompassing definition of terrorism), India put Pakistan on the back foot by making President Pervez Musharraf to crack down on the militant religious elements inside Pakistan. As the international community lauded the bold steps undertaken by Pervez Musharraf, who has wriggled out of one difficult situation after another, the testing of Agni missile was not only just a provocation rather a continuum of India’s nuclear doctrine.

The Agni missile, capable of carrying a 200 Kilo ton boosted fission device is, in fact, an effort to fill the gap between Prithvi and long range missile tests that India has conducted over the years. India is pursuing a refinement of its Nuclear doctrine and this test was aimed at greater sophistication and enhancing the second strike capability with credibility. It was a signal not only to Pakistan but also forewarned China. Encompassing a wider strategic environment, India has set its eyes not only on South Asia but also wants to extend its strategic reach and power on the Indian Ocean, Central Asia and the Middle East. It wants to ensure its ability to dictate and interdict the enemy sea-lanes of communication and exercise its influence from the straits of Malaka to the mouth of Persian Gulf. India has learnt the lessons from the years of cold war and the political use and effectiveness of a nuclear capability is a strategy that it has started to exercise.

Although the section 2.5 of the Indian proto-doctrine, the theoretical backbone of Indian Nuclear program, says that India would not resort to use or threat of use of nuclear weapons against states which do not possess nuclear weapons, it ostensibly has a tacit understanding that Indian nuclear arsenal can be used to strengthen its political muscle against rival countries. Thus, the timing of the Agni missile, on the eve of Indian republic day, was suggestive and meaningful. On one hand, it reassured the public at home that India was pursuing its hegemonic designs towards regional supremacy with full throttle and on the other hand, it was an act of defiance to the world pressure, which has continuously asked India to tone down the belligerent exclamations and boastings and come to the negotiating table.

Nirumpa Rao, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman of India, calmly and smugly dubbed it as a test which was “conducted in a non-provocative manner and has no bearing on the situation on the India-Pakistan border” and that “This should not aggravate any tensions on the border between India and Pakistan”. Pakistan, considering it as a provocation and an extension of India’s nefarious designs retaliated by saying that such acts could threaten the regional stability and Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Aziz Ahmed Khan hoped that “The international community will take note of the Indian behavior, which is prejudicial to the pursuit of stability in our region, especially during the current situation”.

Pakistan, understandably, has shown restraint and urged the International community to be cognizant of the fact that India has engaged in hostile, aggressive postures and hasn’t paid heed to the efforts that have been made by the Pakistan Government. While addressing a press conference, Maj. Gen Rashid Qureishi, the D.G ISPR, asserted that Pakistan would not be provoked into a similar act. Pakistan’s own missile program has been making steady progress with a successful lab test of Shaheen 2 with a range of 25,00 km. At this particular time, going for a hot test would defy prudence. India’s provocation is aimed at neutralizing the high ground that Pakistan has achieved in the wake of its support that it lent to the international community to help eradicate international terrorism. Fanning the fuel by reciprocal measures and indulging in tit for tat actions can only send a wrong signal to the international investor and jeopardize the effort by the government to put the economy on track. A proactive diplomacy based on reasonableness and moderation,aimed at unveiling the façade that the Indian government has put on, trying to curb down the indigenous Kashmiri independence struggle by stigmatizing it as something inspired and sustained by terrorist elements, should be the primary and foremost concern.

Locked into a seemingly intractable situation where both sides are poles apart in perception and identification of the problem, often finding themselves in a cul-de-sac, the need for conflict resolution has assumed immense importance for the people of South Asia. The fact that both India and Pakistan have nuclear capability and the talk and preparation in India about thwarting the first strike by Pakistan, in case of a possibility of conventional defeat in an event of war, has brought the region teetering on the edges of a dangerous eventuality which means destruction and annihilation to both the sides. Aggravating the condition is the fact that Indian Ministers, themselves, have indulged in jingoistic and incendiary statements, blaming Pakistan (and more specifically ISI) for any untowardly event that takes place in India.

Although many opine that the Indian steps and allegations are actually in a logical and thought out plan to garner enough support in the masses to ensure an electoral success in the coming elections in Bihar but the potentiality of any erroneous miscalculation thrusting the region into war remains high and plausible. Earlier this month, Indian Defense Minister, George Fernandes giving an interview to Far Eastern Economic Review’s Joanna Slator had refused to answer a question, when asked about the missile systems being readied or put on an increased state of alert, by saying that “These are issues which can never be discussed” and held that in case of failure of diplomatic efforts, there were other options and “we (Indian government) will examine which one of them to go in for”.

Rather than embarking on a bellicose and belligerent agenda, the Indian government should address the real issue that is rooted in the resolution of the Kashmir Problem. Evading the core issue of Kashmir and expecting the tensions in the region to be resolved just by antagonistic and threatening actions and statements can only be detrimental to peace and stability. An honest mutual dialogue and an effort towards conciliation and resolution of Kashmir will augur peace, progress and stability not only for both countries but also for the whole region.

Filed on February 10th 2002.