the Politics of Nuclear brinkmanship in the subcontinent

By Dr Sohail Mahmood

COLUMN READING:

Clausewitz said that war is diplomacy by other means. We nearly came to war in the subcontinent when India seemed to have resolved that all political means had been exhausted to have Pakistan change its behavior in Kashmir. After 9/11 it had continuously pressurized Pakistan to take care of the so-called cross-border terrorist phenomenon. India alleged that Pakistan was not doing enough to stop the Jihadist elements from filtering into Indian Occupied Kashmir from Azad Kashmir side of the Line of Control. More specifically, the Government of India had alleged that it had concrete evidence that thousands of Muslim militants were ready to once again enter India from across the Line of Control in Kashmir.

Threats by the Indian leadership to teach Pakistan a lesson was met by equally stringent replies from Pakistan. The Musharraf regime clearly implied that it would do whatever seemed necessary to defend the country - meaning the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort. Everyone understood that war in the conventional sense could escalate out of control into a nuclear conflict resulting in a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions. Very recent nuclear brinkmanship was all too real and frightening.

Pakistan promised not to let the Muslim militants use Azad Kashmir as a staging ground for penetration into Indian Kashmir. This was the first time that the Musharraf Government had made such a pledge. Prime Minister Vajpayee gave two months to the Pakistani Government to dismantle the alleged Jihadist training camps on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control. Millions across the world were relieved at the subsequent cooling of tempers in the subcontinent. The question remains as to what can be realistically expected of the Musharraf regime regarding Indian demands.

During the last decade a war of liberation is being fought inside Indian Occupied Kashmir in which about 80,000 people have died and countless homes, mosques, villages and markets. The tremendous sacrifice of the Kashmiri Muslims to wage a war of liberation against India was strongly supported by Pakistanis across the board. The Pakistanis see Kashmir as a cultural and religious extension of their homeland which rightfully belongs to them and not India. It was India that had reneged on its promise of holding a plebiscite in Kashmir under UNO auspices. India treats Kashmir as a colony which is despised by the local inhabitants of the land. The Kashmiris want freedom from the Indian yoke. Based on the universal principle of self-determination it is their inherent right to seek freedom from a foreign military occupation force. Remember Kashmir has been a Muslim land for over a thousand years and is part and parcel of the Islamic world situated on its western and southern borders. Even the northern side borders Muslim provinces of China. The point is that General Musharraf can hardly be expected to reverse history in this part of the world. Even if he wants to stop the Jihad in Kashmir he cannot. The Kashmiri Jihad is not dependent upon his support and the legacy too powerful for him to thwart.

Nevertheless, the Musharraf regime did the right thing to promise that it will remain outside the Jihad business for the future. On May 28 General Musharraf made a tough speech in which he reiterated Pakistan’s known position. In another instance, he said that there was to be no compromise on principles. Kashmir was disputed territory and not part of India. The United Nations was involved in the dispute since the very beginning and the UN Security Council had asked for plebiscite more than a half century ago. Despite the promises, India has reneged on its promise to the world on the Kashmir dispute. Notwithstanding claims of the Government of Pakistan, many Jihadis have indeed come from Pakistan to fight the Jihad in Kashmir. This is an open secret and should be now acknowledged. General Musharraf must try stopping this from happening. He is between the devil and the deep blue sea. General Musharraf's dilemma on Kashmir is very real. The world must still give him the benefit of the doubt and take him for his intentions. India is being too hard on General Musharraf‘s regime by expecting overnight miracles. It bears repeating that the Jihad struggle cannot be finished in two months. It will take much more time, perseverance, and patience.

The people have to be convinced that Pakistan is too weak to engage in the liberation of Kashmir in any significant manner. After all, General Musharraf himself coined the slogan – Pakistan first. Let him put his words into action. In the meanwhile, we have to be ready for the worst. India thinks this is an opportune time to defeat us once and forever. We have to acquire strength and do whatever it takes to acquire it. Plus, the nation must stand united against the enemy. We can and should stop bickering among us at this moment of crisis. The political parties in the opposition must show support to General Musharraf now. On his part the good general must promise to resign the office of the presidency after the October elections.

The change of direction by General Musharraf must be welcomed given the threat on our borders.

Given this preponderant display of awesome power by the enemy and the looming threat of war, continued support for the Kashmiri Jihad would have been dangerous for Pakistan. Notwithstanding the official bravado in Pakistan the country is too weak to engage in full-scale war with its giant enemy. The recent referendum in Pakistan has weakened General Musharraf no matter what he and his supporters would like to believe. The country is not united and many people do not acknowledge that he is the right man to lead Pakistan into a new war with India. Clausewitz was right in saying that war is politics by other means. Another common saying about war is that it is too serious a business to be left to generals alone. It would have been better for Pakistan that we had a strong political party at the helm of affairs like that in India. Unfortunately that is not the case. The chances of General Musharraf bowing out at this moment are zero. For the sake of argument alone - Pakistan is that much weaker because of the current military rule.

More importantly, the fear of an escalation into a nuclear exchange is very real given the various elements in the equation. The proximity of the two antagonists, the mutual hatred bordering on paranoia, desperation, human error and high chances miscalculations make the situation of war a very dismal situation. So in the end it was right for Pakistan to back down from the abyss. It is hoped that we would use this window of opportunity to solve the problem of Kashmir once and for all. Can we expect any of the two antagonists – General Musharraf and Premier Vajpayee - to yield on the Kashmir issue and be accused of “selling out” by their respective hawkish elements in the two Establishments. It would be reasonable to assume that giving significant concessions on the Kashmir issue is quite impossible for both parties. Therefore, a third party mediation effort is necessary. After all, Kashmir is the left over business of the Partition and is the making of the British colonizers to begin with. Not that the British can be expected to help us solve the problem.

The only country in the world that has sufficient power and prestige to help us is the USA. Unfortunately, the USA seems to be preoccupied with other matters including efforts to bring peace in Israel and Palestine. It would take diplomacy at the very highest level – the level of the USA presidency – to bring peace to the region. It is in the mutual interest of both the two local antagonists – India and Pakistan – and the USA itself that South Asia becomes peaceful. America’s war against terrorism will be assisted if the basis of enmity between Pakistan and India – Kashmir – is successfully dealt with. The USA is reluctant to get involved at the highest level which is a big mistake on its part.

South Asia is a very volatile region and a breakout of war between India and Pakistan will eventually draw in many outside powers, including the USA, into the conflict. A nuclear war will destroy the region and hundreds of millions of people will be killed instantaneously. The nightmare is all too real and the likelihood of the first nuclear conflict is imaginable. It is reasonable to assume that India means what it says that it will not introduce nuclear weapons first against Pakistan. It simply does not have to. Given its large size and tremendous military power it can win a war against Pakistan by conventional means only. The threat of first use comes from Pakistan and not India. Given the possibility of total defeat on the hands of its arch-enemy, Pakistan can be expected to use its nuclear arsenal as a last resort. A suicide of sorts that would bring the hated enemy down also. If we have to die any ways, then why not take the enemy down with us in our graves. The logic is simple but yet powerful. More importantly, many Pakistanis would believe in this decent and honorable final act to the drama of war in the subcontinent. The enemy will thus be defeated also. Muslims have faith in their destiny. Meanwhile, the world must do whatever it takes to prevent this nuclear catastrophe from happening. It is for the USA to step out of its temporary daze and take the initiative to get both India and Pakistan on the negotiating table and out of the battlefields.

This is indeed a very serious crisis that the two governments cannot handle alone. Nothing short of this would be expected from the sole superpower to shoulder its own responsibility to secure our world. Will the Bush administration act in time? Will they plan a bold initiative in South Asia to help us resolve this issue? Or will it walk away, shirking its responsibilities just because it does not understand the gravity of the emotions and religiosity of the Kashmir issue and its resultant complexity. Who said it would be easy to be the sole superpower in our complex world today? The hapless and desolate people of both India and Pakistan look forward to the USA to come to their rescue and help them prevent the first nuclear conflict in history from actually taking place. The alternate scenario is too horrific to imagine. Time is running out. It is better that the Americans act sooner than later. It is therefore an imperative that the USA acts now. It is better to get involved now than later when the nuclear nightmare would have occurred. The French government’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir dispute must be welcomed by all. It is better for us to be shouting across the negotiating table than hurling nuclear warheads on each other. Is the leadership listening? We hope and pray to God for peace.

The writer is an Asst Professor at Area Study Center, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.